Edges for Sep 4, 2026

It is overwhelmingly likely that Spider-Man: Brand New Day will be below 940 million domestically by September 30. That threshold is far above what even the biggest Spider-Man films typically reach in a single run, especially within roughly two months of release.

The market looks substantially more likely to resolve Yes than the current price suggests because the reporting already describes U.S. military action in Iran in 2026, and the war is still active with no durable settlement. The main uncertainty is definitional, since a strict ground-control invasion is harder to confirm than strikes and wider offensive operations.

I think Starbucks is materially more likely than not to report more than 41,800 global stores in 2026. The market appears to be pricing in a slowdown that is possible, but the threshold is low enough relative to Starbucks’ historical footprint growth that Yes should be favored.

I put the chance of Barron Trump receiving a presidential pardon before January 21, 2029 at very low, around 2%. There is no public evidence of any federal exposure, pending case, or even credible discussion that would make a pardon likely or operationally relevant.

Anthropic looks like the clear favorite to finish September with the top-ranked AI agent, and the market is already pricing that in heavily. I agree with the direction, but I would still leave some room for a late-month model update from a rival or a leaderboard reshuffle.

Samuel Alito is more likely than not to remain on the Court through the end of Trump’s term. The explicit reporting that he is not expected to retire, combined with the absence of any health or succession signal, makes a resignation look meaningfully less likely than the market price implies.

Trump is extremely likely to publicly insult someone on September 3, given his long-running habit of making disparaging remarks and the fact that recent coverage shows the pattern continuing right up to this date. The only meaningful uncertainty is whether a qualifying insult is publicly documented on the specific date rather than merely implied by adjacent reporting.

Arsenal look like a credible title contender, but a league win is still far from the most likely outcome in a competition with multiple elite rivals and high variance over a full season. I think the market is pricing them too aggressively, so my estimate is below 50% and closer to the low-to-mid 20s.

I think OpenAI is more likely than Anthropic to IPO first, but not nearly as certain as the market implies. The governance complexity at OpenAI makes this far from a lock, and Anthropic’s cleaner structure gives it a credible path to go public earlier.

I think the chance Trump is impeached before January 20, 2029 is materially lower than the market implies. Impeachment is possible given his history and the volatility of congressional politics, but it still requires a specific alignment of House control, scandal severity, and party incentives that is not the base case.

United Russia is very likely to gain the most seats again, and the main question is margin rather than whether it stays first. The only meaningful downside is an unusually sharp performance collapse or an unexpected seat-allocation quirk, both of which look unlikely.

A foldable iPhone release by September 15 looks very unlikely. Apple typically moves cautiously on entirely new hardware categories, and a public sale by that date would require an unusually compressed launch cycle.

Elon Musk is very likely to remain active on X during this window, but the bar is high enough that fewer than 40 counted posts is still somewhat plausible. I make Yes at 24%, which is above the market price but still a minority outcome.

Anthropic is a serious contender to finish first, but the market looks too confident given how quickly leaderboard positions can change and how close the competition usually is among frontier labs. I would price it materially below the current market, with a moderate chance rather than a dominant one.

Boeing can plausibly get back into the low-600s if 737 MAX output rises steadily and 787 deliveries remain strong, but clearing 620 looks more like an aggressive upside case than the base case. I would price this closer to the high-50s than the high-70s.

I think Yes is more likely than not, but the market is probably pricing it a bit too confidently. The SPR is close enough to 280 million barrels that a few sizable weekly draws would do it, yet the actual pace of SPR movement is usually uneven and not guaranteed.

Scottie Scheffler is good enough to make this plausible, but the bar is still high because he must capture both remaining majors before 2028. I make it meaningfully above the market, at 22%, because his win equity in any major is elite and he has multiple chances left.

I think the market is pricing this as an extremely unlikely “bad year” for Trump, but the odds of a meaningful adverse year are materially higher than 4%. My independent estimate is 22%, reflecting the real chance of legal, health, political, or economic setbacks accumulating in 2026.

USAID is meaningfully at risk of being gutted or restructured, but full elimination is still a higher bar because it likely requires either sustained executive action that survives legal challenges or congressional acquiescence. I գնահատestimate a moderate Yes probability, higher than the market’s price but far from certain.

I think a 2026 Fed rate hike is somewhat less likely than the market implies, but still very plausible if inflation proves sticky or growth stays too strong. My estimate is that Yes is just under even odds.

I think a Trump administration buying any part of Greenland is very unlikely, but not impossible. The realistic probability is low single digits, well below the current market price.

I գնահատimate a low-single-digit to high-single-digit chance that the United States formally acquires control of any part of Greenland before 2029. The political and legal barriers are enormous, but the phrasing is broad enough that a narrow security or basing arrangement makes this possible in a very small tail scenario.

A Trump resignation before the end of the term looks unlikely. The default path is that he serves out the term unless there is an extraordinary health, legal, or political shock, and I make the Yes probability well below the market.

My independent estimate is that Trump has only a very small chance of being both impeached and removed before the end of his term. Impeachment is plausible in a hostile political environment, but Senate removal remains the hard, historically rare step.

Robinhood can still clear 30.2 million funded customers in 2026, but it needs a meaningfully faster second-half pace than it has shown so far. I put the Yes probability at 39%, modestly above the market price.

I think a rate cut by the Bank of Israel in October is possible but still not the base case. The market’s 13.5% implied probability looks reasonable, and I would place the chance of a decrease only slightly above that level.

My independent estimate is that Trump has a meaningful but still limited chance of hitting the implied approval threshold in 2026, closer to the high teens than the mid-single digits. The market looks too dismissive of a one-year approval surge, but the bar is high enough that No remains the likelier outcome.

Trump has a meaningful history of turning on allies when he feels criticized or betrayed, and Tucker Carlson is prominent enough that any falling-out could quickly become public and personal. Still, Tucker is not a routine Trump target, so the market’s high Yes price looks a bit aggressive rather than clearly wrong.

I think the market is slightly underestimating the chance of a conviction, but the case still looks more likely to end without a murder conviction than with one. A Yes outcome is plausible if the case reaches a jury and the prosecution secures at least one murder verdict, but mental illness issues and the possibility of a non-conviction resolution keep No the more probable result.

I estimate a 30% chance of Yes. The market is effectively asking whether the U.S. has avoided a qualifying strike on Iran for a full 14-day window by the deadline, and with no reported recent escalation, that outcome is possible but still far from assured.

I think there is still a meaningful but limited chance that August core PCE prints at 3.0% or below, with the most likely outcome still slightly above the threshold. The market’s low Yes price looks broadly sensible, though I would give Yes a bit more than 16.5% because a modest downside surprise is plausible if recent disinflation has continued.

NVIDIA has a strong path to finishing 2026 as the world’s largest company, but the race is tight enough that the current market looks somewhat optimistic. I think Yes is more likely than not, though not as high as the market-implied price suggests.

I make the chance of no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump’s term very high, around 94%. The market appears to be pricing in some non-trivial acquisition scenario that would require an extraordinary diplomatic and constitutional chain of events that is still very unlikely to materialize.

I put this at 14% yes. Trump could escalate rhetoric or pressure Panama, but actually “taking back” the canal would require an extraordinary geopolitical break with Panama and likely the broader international order.

Pete Hegseth looks like one of the more vulnerable Cabinet members, but not the single most likely to be next out. I make the chance he is the next departure meaningfully above the market, driven by the exposure and volatility of his post, though RFK Jr. remains a very serious rival for the first exit.

Trump is more likely than not to keep the H-1B program constrained, but a targeted expansion or loosening is plausible if business and tech lobbying becomes politically useful. I put the chance of some meaningful expansion during his term modestly above the market.

Anthropic looks like the frontrunner, but this is still a highly competitive leaderboard outcome where a late model release or a rapid score shift could change the top spot. I would price Yes somewhat below the market, though still clearly favored.

I գնահատimate a meaningfully higher-than-market chance that at least one quarter of GDP will exceed 5% during 2025–2028, but it is still far from the base case. My independent probability is 34%, reflecting that the threshold is high and usually requires either an unusually strong expansion quarter or a rebound from weakness.

I think the market is too pessimistic on U.S. real GDP growth in 2035. My base case is still moderate positive growth centered around the 1.6% to 2.5% bands, with a meaningful but smaller chance of either weak growth or an upside surprise.

New Hampshire is still the likeliest answer, but the market is a bit too confident because the Democratic calendar is now more exposed to party-rule changes and national bargaining than in the past. I make New Hampshire a strong favorite, just not as close to a lock as 79% implies.

Keith Sonderling remains the clear frontrunner because he is the only Labor-specific name in the supplied news flow and is already being described as acting Labor Secretary. I think the market is directionally right, but a little too confident given the lack of a clean, official nomination announcement.

The Liberals are close enough to Sweden’s parliamentary threshold that they still have a meaningful chance of winning seats, but the risk of falling short is real. I would price Yes slightly above the market, mainly because even a modest rebound or constituency-based path could keep them in the Riksdag.

Solana reaching $140 by the end of 2026 looks plausible but not the most likely outcome. The balance of recent forecasts, technical resistance levels, and market pricing points to a modestly below-even chance, with upside dependent on a continued momentum breakout and favorable crypto conditions.

Google has a real path to the top by the end of 2026, but it must beat several equally strong frontier labs on a single leaderboard snapshot. I think the market is somewhat too bearish, yet Google is still more likely than not to miss first place.

Trump invoking the Insurrection Act is plausible but still not the base case. I make it meaningfully above the market at 25%, driven by the combination of his willingness to use emergency powers and the fact that a serious domestic unrest or immigration-related crisis is not far-fetched over a full presidential term.

I estimate a roughly one-in-three chance of a recession in 2027. The market’s 29% Yes price is a bit low, but not dramatically so.

The most likely 2033 outcome is modest, positive growth in the 1.1% to 1.5% range, with a real but smaller chance of a stronger productivity-led outcome. Tail risks on both the downside and an AI-driven upside remain meaningful, but neither looks dominant today.

I put the chance of any company publicly announcing that it has achieved AGI before Oct. 1, 2026 at 22%. The most credible recent signal is that OpenAI may internally label something AGI by year-end, but that is materially different from a public, unequivocal announcement in the next few weeks.

I think the most likely 2032 U.S. real GDP growth outcome is centered in the low-to-mid 2% range, with a meaningful chance of a softer 1% to 2% result and a smaller but nontrivial tail for recessionary or very strong-growth outcomes. My independent view is modestly more optimistic than the market’s binary pricing, but still far from implying a boom.

I think there is a small but real chance that By Any Means finishes under 4 million domestically on opening weekend, but the market is probably right that it is unlikely. The lack of visible buzz and the very low implied price for Yes suggest this is not expected to be a breakout release.

I think the market is somewhat optimistic but still plausible: there is a meaningful chance Variational launches with a governance token that trades above an $800M FDV one day later. I would price Yes slightly below the current market at 65%.

I slightly favor a move to a new location in Illinois by the 2028 season opener, but only by a narrow margin. The most plausible path is still an Illinois-based suburban site, while Indiana remains a credible fallback if financing, zoning, or political hurdles slow progress.

I put the chance that Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is actually used during Trump’s presidency at 18%. The bar is extremely high, and the available context suggests no current trajectory toward a formal incapacity declaration, though the risk is not zero over a multi-year horizon.

I see a somewhat below-even chance that the Bank of Russia cuts the key rate at the October meeting. The market’s pricing near 44% looks a bit optimistic for a cut unless incoming inflation and activity data soften clearly by then.

The market is already pricing in a high chance that Predict.fun launches a token with an FDV above $50M on the first full day after launch, and that looks directionally reasonable. I think the Yes side is favored, but the threshold is high enough that a weak launch, limited liquidity, or post-launch sell pressure still leaves some meaningful downside.

Anthropic is still the most plausible winner, but the market looks somewhat aggressive given how quickly the top spot in arena-style leaderboards can change. I would keep Yes as the favorite, though not as high as the current price suggests.

Ethereum reaching $4,000 in September looks unlikely but not impossible. The market’s 1.85% implied probability is probably too low given the remaining time in the month, but the threshold still requires a meaningful rally from current conditions.

OpenAI appears likely to eventually place Astra on the Arena leaderboard, but the specific threshold of 1480 is not assured on first qualifying appearance. The market is pricing a very high success rate, yet the combination of timing, naming, and first-entry score uncertainty keeps my estimate somewhat below that level.

The Daily Show has a real but limited path to victory, mostly if it remains the dominant satirical news program and the field splits the vote among other giants. Still, this category usually concentrates around a few entrenched favorites, and the current price looks about right to slightly generous toward Yes.

NVIDIA has a plausible path to remain near the top of global market-cap rankings, but being exactly second-largest on December 31, 2026 is a narrow and unstable outcome. I think the market is slightly too pessimistic, but the event still looks like a low-probability Yes.