US real GDP growth in 2035?

With no fresh news available, the best guide is the long-run structure of the U.S. economy and the tendency for nominally mature advanced economies to cluster around modest positive real growth rather than persistent stagnation. Over a ten-year horizon, the biggest determinant is not the current cycle but trend productivity, labor-force growth, and policy regime; absent a major structural break, those forces usually support some positive expansion even if it is not spectacular. That makes a center-of-mass forecast around roughly 1.5% to 2.5% more plausible than a heavy concentration in zero or negative growth.

The top contender buckets tell a coherent story: the market is already assigning the largest weights to 2.1% to 2.5%, 1.6% to 2.0%, and 0.0% or below, which is consistent with a wide uncertainty band and a relatively flat forecast landscape. I agree that deep recessionary outcomes cannot be dismissed over such a long horizon, but I think the combined probability of moderate growth buckets is somewhat understated relative to the downside buckets. The U.S. has historically found ways to sustain positive real growth through demographic adaptation, capital deepening, immigration, and productivity gains, even when headline sentiment looks weak.

Compared with the current market, I am modestly more constructive on the middle outcomes and less convinced that the distribution should be so skewed toward No. If the market’s No price is reflecting a belief that 2035 growth will be unusually low or that the economy will structurally underperform for an entire decade, that may be too aggressive without a concrete catalyst. My independent view is that the market is probably overpricing secular stagnation and underpricing the chance that growth settles into a still-healthy, if unspectacular, range above 1.5%.