2026: Trump's dream year?
I make this a meaningful but far from likely possibility: Trump has enough avenues for visible wins, agenda-setting, and selective court or administrative successes that a “bull case” year is plausible. Still, the legal environment is hostile enough that a broad, durable triumph looks more like an exception than the base case.
Analysis
The strongest argument for Yes is that the bull case does not require total dominance; it likely only requires a cluster of high-profile wins, sustained momentum, and enough policy or judicial successes to validate the pro-Trump narrative. The recent cattle and agriculture executive action, the Supreme Court allowing the ballroom project to proceed, and the continuing ability to force issues into the national conversation all fit that template. Trump has repeatedly shown that even partial victories, combined with relentless media attention, can translate into the kind of year his supporters would describe as a “dream year.”
The main argument against Yes is that the overall record still looks highly contested. Several major initiatives are being blocked or challenged in federal court, including birthright citizenship and mail-in voting restrictions, which suggests the legal system is materially limiting the scope of his agenda. If the definition of bull case implies broad, durable policy success rather than a few headline wins, then the recent mix of partial victories and ongoing setbacks points more toward an uneven year than an outright breakout.
Compared with the market price, I think 6% is too low. Markets may be underweighting how often Trump turns even narrow procedural or symbolic wins into a broader narrative of momentum, and how much room there is for additional favorable rulings, executive actions, or political developments before 2027. That said, the market is not irrational to price a low probability if the event requires sustained, across-the-board success rather than simply a few visible wins; my view is that the true chance of some recognizable bull-case outcome is closer to the high 20s than the single digits.
Arguments
For
- Recent executive actions and selective legal wins show Trump can still produce concrete victories in 2026.
- His ability to dominate attention and frame events for supporters makes a momentum-based bull case easier to achieve than a traditional policy benchmark.
Against
- Several central initiatives are still being blocked or challenged, which limits the chance of a clean success narrative.
- If the event requires broad policy durability, the current mix of partial wins and legal setbacks is not enough.
Key drivers
- Trump still has multiple paths to visible wins through executive actions, court outcomes, and agenda-setting.
- The market may be interpreting a single favorable year as requiring broad success, which is harder to achieve amid active litigation.
Risk factors
- Federal court resistance could keep major initiatives from becoming durable wins.
- A bull case defined narrowly as sweeping policy success would be harder to realize than a narrative-driven, headline-heavy year.
Scenarios
Best case
Trump strings together several high-profile wins in trade, executive action, and the courts, creating a year that supporters can credibly describe as a strong vindication of his agenda.
Most likely
Trump posts a handful of visible wins and remains highly influential, but the broader record stays mixed enough that only some observers would call 2026 a true bull-case year.
Worst case
Court losses pile up, major initiatives stall, and the year is remembered more for conflict and obstruction than for meaningful accomplishments.
More from this day
- CompaniesKalshi1y
Starbucks total global stores in 2026
AI66%MKT11%Edge+55Hidden GemI think Starbucks is materially more likely than not to report more than 41,800 global stores in 2026. The market appears to be pricing in a slowdown that is possible, but the threshold is low enough relative to Starbucks’ historical footprint growth that Yes should be favored.
- PoliticsKalshi2y
Which agencies will Trump eliminate?
AI78%MKT26%Edge+52Hidden GemI think Yes is substantially more likely than the market implies, because multiple reports indicate USAID has already been dismantled in practice. The main uncertainty is whether the market resolves on formal legal abolition or on operational elimination, but the balance of evidence still favors Yes.
- PoliticsKalshi2y
Who will Trump pardon?
AI12%MKT50%Edge-38HypedMy independent estimate is that Barron Trump is unlikely to receive a presidential pardon by Jan. 21, 2029. A pardon would require either an actual prosecutorial risk or an extraordinary political/ family circumstance, both of which look uncommon for someone with no public indication of legal jeopardy.