Edges for Aug 11, 2026

Starbucks looks very likely to clear 41,800 global stores in 2026. The latest reported base and management’s own net-new store guidance point to a year-end total comfortably above the threshold.

Ethereum looks overwhelmingly likely to hit $3,000 by December 31, 2026, and the provided context even suggests it may already have done so this year. The main uncertainty is not market direction but whether the event will resolve cleanly on a recognized price print.

USAID looks much more likely than not to count as eliminated during Trump’s term, because the administration has already dismantled its independent operations and shifted its functions into the State Department. The main uncertainty is whether the market requires formal legal abolition, but even under that standard the path toward Yes remains materially stronger than the current price implies.

I think OpenAI is more likely to lag Anthropic, so the Yes outcome is only a minority possibility. The market appears to be overpricing OpenAI's visible IPO prep relative to Anthropic's earlier implied timing.

Barron Trump being pardoned before 2029 looks very unlikely absent any known federal case or public allegation. I estimate the probability at 4%, far below the current market price.

Scheffler is already three majors deep, still elite enough to be a favorite in most big events, and he has four remaining major starts before the deadline. I think the chance he completes the career Grand Slam before 2028 is materially higher than the market implies.

Lisa Demuth has a real path to victory, but the available evidence still leaves her behind Mike Lindell rather than clearly ahead. The market price looks too optimistic on her chances, so I put her as a meaningful underdog with roughly a 39% chance to win.

2026 has a real but not dominant path to the top spot. The most likely outcome is that it finishes very near the record but just short of being the hottest year on record.

Trump is already facing a meaningful cluster of legal, institutional, and policy setbacks, so a genuinely bearish 2026 is more plausible than the market implies. I still would not call it the base case because he remains politically durable and many of these fights can be delayed, narrowed, or spun as victories.

Elon Musk could certainly clear 40 posts in a 48-hour window if he stays anywhere near his recent pace, but his activity is volatile enough that a quieter stretch still has a meaningful chance of landing below the cutoff. I put the probability of fewer than 40 posts at 31%, a bit above the market but still a minority outcome.

My base case is that 2035 U.S. real GDP growth lands in the 1.6% to 2.5% range, with 1.6% to 2.0% the single most likely bucket. The market looks a bit too pessimistic on outright zero-or-negative growth.

I put the chance of impeachment before Jan. 20, 2029 at 41%. Trump’s prior history and the possibility of a Democratic House keep the event alive, but the procedural hurdle is still substantial and current reporting suggests caution rather than a committed impeachment drive.

Robinhood looks meaningfully more likely than not to finish 2026 above 30.2 million funded customers. The Q2 2026 print already puts the company close enough that a continuation of recent momentum should get it over the line.

Alito’s age makes retirement plausible, but his recent public denial of near-term plans materially lowers the odds. I still see a meaningful chance of leaving before Trump’s term ends, just not a majority one.

I think the Bears are more likely to end up in Indiana than at a new Illinois site by the 2028 opener. Illinois still has a plausible path through Arlington Heights or another revived deal, but the clearest recent momentum is cross-border and the timeline is getting tight.

I put the most likely 2032 outcome in the 2.1% to 2.5% range, with a roughly one-in-three chance. The market looks too pessimistic on that bin and too anchored to sub-2% growth.

I think the chance Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is formally used during Trump’s presidency is meaningfully lower than the market implies. The main reason is that the constitutional and political thresholds are both extremely high, and the vice president plus cabinet would need to take an extraordinary, destabilizing step.

The odds are low that the United States will actually acquire any part of Greenland before 2029, though the question is broad enough that an unusual lease or status arrangement cannot be ruled out entirely. My independent estimate is 10%, well below the current market price.

Gemini is already very close to the 50% threshold on Humanity’s Last Exam, so a year-end breakthrough is plausible. Even so, the current best-known Gemini score is still 47%, which makes the market’s very high Yes price look somewhat aggressive relative to the evidence.

The canal is very likely to remain under Panamanian sovereignty, and Trump’s rhetoric plus pressure on nearby assets does not amount to a true takeback. I put the Yes probability at 7%, with most of that coming from resolution ambiguity rather than an actual transfer of control.

Anthropic has a real chance to finish first, but the market looks somewhat too confident given how volatile leaderboard-based outcomes can be. I think Anthropic is a slight favorite rather than a near-lock.

A completed U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term looks overwhelmingly unlikely. The base case is no acquisition, with only a very small tail for any purchase-like deal.

Anthropic is the clear favorite because it already appears near the top of the relevant leaderboard family and the market is pricing that in aggressively. I still leave room for a late-August flip because arena rankings can move quickly when a rival ships a stronger model.

A U.S. invasion of Iran before the end of 2026 looks unlikely. The current posture is centered on air, naval, and diplomatic pressure, and there is still no visible sign of the logistics, legal authorization, or political commitment that would normally precede a ground offensive.

Sofia is still a live contender, especially given its stronger infrastructure and former front-runner status, but the delayed decision and Burgas momentum make this a close race. I estimate Sofia has about a 38% chance of being chosen.

The most likely outcome is still a moderate-growth print around the high-1s to low-2s, with 1.6% to 2.0% the single most probable band. I see somewhat more weight on the 2.1% to 2.5% range than the market does, while extreme boom-or-bust outcomes remain relatively unlikely.

OpenAI is the current favorite because gpt-image-2 is already ranked first on the relevant arena leaderboard, and outside commentary broadly agrees it is the strongest text-to-image model right now. Still, the market is a little too confident for a fixed-date leaderboard outcome, because a late competitor release could easily change the ranking before September 30.

I think the most likely outcome is that the Fed leaves rates unchanged for the rest of 2026, but the margin is not huge because a labor-market slowdown could still force one cut. My estimate for no cuts in 2026 is 78%.

Trump keeps pressing the idea, but a real purchase would require unprecedented cooperation from Denmark and Greenland. I think the chance by the end of his term is low, around 9%, and the market looks too optimistic.

I think Trump is more likely to restrict H-1B and other high-skill immigration than to expand it, with only a small chance of a meaningful pro-expansion shift before the end of his term. The most plausible path is continued tightening, fee increases, or at most narrow carve-outs rather than a true expansion.

United Russia remains the clear favorite under a tightly controlled electoral system, with opposition parties fragmented and limited by thresholds and district management. The main caveat is that this market is about seat gains relative to the prior Duma, so ER's already huge baseline makes the exact contract slightly less straightforward than a simple election-winner bet.

The market is close to evenly split, but current traffic levels are still dramatically below the 60-ship threshold. I think a recovery is possible before year-end, but not likely enough to outweigh the ongoing disruption.

Solana can reach $140 by the end of 2026, but it is still more of an upside-tail outcome than the base case. The market’s 10.5% implied chance looks a bit too low, yet the path requires a strong crypto rebound and a clear break above several intermediate resistance levels.

Gianni Infantino is still in office and the current political crisis appears to be a fight over his future rather than evidence of an imminent departure. I think the odds of him ceasing to be FIFA president before year-end are meaningfully below the current market price, though not negligible because a sudden resignation or forced exit is still possible.

I estimate a relatively low chance that Trump resigns before the end of the term, around 11%. The market appears somewhat too high on Yes, likely because it is leaning on speculation and long-shot tail risk rather than evidence of an actual resignation path.

I put this at 2%: an actual U.S. acquisition or control of Canadian territory before 2029 would require extraordinary legal and political steps that are nowhere in evidence. The current market looks materially overstated relative to the available reporting.

Aaron Taylor-Johnson is still a plausible contender, but the evidence remains rumor-heavy rather than confirmatory. I think the chance he is officially announced by the end of 2026 is meaningfully higher than the market price, but still not high in absolute terms.

I think the next Grok 4.6-plus leaderboard debut is more likely than not to clear 1440, but the market looks a bit too confident given the lack of a verified public score and the uncertainty around the exact rollout. My estimate is 87% Yes.

Peggy Flanagan looks like the slight-to-moderate favorite, but the race is close enough that fundraising and turnout could still flip it. I put her chances below the market price because the latest context points to a competitive contest rather than a near-lock.

Anthropic is the leading candidate and deserves to be favored, especially with only several weeks left before the September 30 check. Still, the arena is competitive enough that a late OpenAI or Google surge keeps this from being close to certain.

I think exactly one Supreme Court confirmation is the most likely single outcome, but the market is a bit too confident in that middle case. The aging Court makes two confirmations almost as plausible as one, while zero remains a meaningful live possibility.

A single quarter above 5% is plausible over the remaining Trump term, but it is still more likely than not that the economy never clears that bar. I make the Yes probability 44%, slightly above the market because the question only requires one outlier quarter, not a sustained boom.

I estimate only a low probability that China overtakes the U.S. in nominal GDP by 2030. The U.S. still has a very large lead, and China’s growth path faces structural headwinds that make a five-year catch-up unlikely.

I make the Fed no-change outcome in December 2027 slightly more likely than the market does, because a single meeting two years out is more likely to land on a pause than on a fresh move. The balance of evidence points to a modestly bullish case for a 0 bps decision, but not by a wide margin.

I put the chance of a company explicitly announcing AGI before Oct. 1, 2027 at 28%. Rapid capability gains make it plausible, but the need for a public, unambiguous corporate declaration keeps the odds materially below a simple “models get very good” forecast.

I put the chance of Israel-Saudi normalization before Jan. 20, 2029 at 34%. The diplomatic and economic incentives are real, but Saudi Arabia’s Palestinian-statehood شرط remains the main obstacle and still looks harder than the market is implying.

The most likely outcome is No, because the latest comparable H100 index reading is still above the $2.25 cutoff and broader pricing references remain firmer than that level. Yes is possible if Ornn’s final methodology weights cheaper spot or marketplace inventory more heavily, but that looks like a minority scenario.

Marine Le Pen is a serious contender and likely to reach the runoff, but winning the presidency still requires breaking a long-standing second-round barrier. My assessment is that she has a meaningful path to victory, yet the combined weight of runoff coalitions, residual opposition, and electoral uncertainty keeps the odds below one-third.

NVIDIA remains the clear frontrunner and is currently valued as the world’s largest company, but the contract depends on who finishes first on a single date, so the risk of a late-year flip is meaningful. I would still assign NVIDIA a strong but not dominant chance, slightly below the market price because the gap is vulnerable to a sharp rerating or a strong rally in Apple or Alphabet.

Democrats have a plausible path back to Senate control, but the 2026 map still slightly favors Republicans. I put the chance of a Democratic majority at 44%, a bit below the current market price.

I assign a modest but non-trivial chance that Trump gets a broadly favorable political and market setup in 2026, with the main hinge being the midterm outcome and whether legal resistance softens. The market looks too bearish if this is a bundled outcome rather than a single event, but it is still a low-probability result overall.

Alibaba is still the clear favorite to finish August with the top Chinese model on the arena leaderboard, mainly because Qwen3.8-Max appears to be a genuine frontier contender and the remaining window is short. I still leave some room for rivals or a late Alibaba-relative reshuffle, so my confidence is high but not absolute.

I put a single-year 2033 contraction at about 7%, meaning the market is a bit too high on the zero/negative-growth tail. The modal outcome is still a modestly positive year, centered in the 2.1% to 2.5% range.

Elon Musk has a non-trivial chance to visit Mars before 2099, but it remains a long-shot because the mission has to become technically real, safe enough for humans, and compatible with his health and lifespan. I put the odds modestly above the market at 14%.

Anthropic is currently leading the relevant math leaderboard, so the market only resolves Yes if it slips to exactly second by the August 31 check. That is possible, but it is less likely than Anthropic staying first or falling somewhere else in the ranking.

Anthropic has a real but limited path to finishing second in the Math lab ranking by the September cutoff. The market is pricing that outcome as very unlikely, and I agree it is a low-probability result, though probably not as tiny as 4%.

Under 40 tweets is possible, but it is still a minority outcome because Musk’s recent posting pace has been elevated and the window includes enough active time for him to clear the threshold. I would price Yes at 23%, below the market’s 25% implied probability but not dramatically so.

The Clarity Act still has a path, but it is narrow: the bill has cleared the House and remains alive in the Senate, yet it is still stuck at a procedural stage with limited time left in 2026. My estimate is that enactment this year is more likely than not to fail, with a meaningful but modest chance of a late-session breakthrough.

NVIDIA is still the clear favorite to finish August as the world’s largest company by market cap, but the margin is not so enormous that a sharp late-month move could not matter. I estimate an 88% chance of Yes, modestly below the market-implied level because the outcome depends on a few more weeks of volatile trading.

Elon Musk is still far above $600B by the latest estimates, so the default expectation is that he stays above the threshold on August 31. A yes outcome is possible because his wealth can swing violently, but it would likely require a large, fast repricing in SpaceX, Tesla, or both.