Edges for Aug 12, 2026

Anthropic currently looks more likely to reach the public markets first, so I put OpenAI first at a fairly low probability. The market’s 89% implied yes price looks too optimistic unless OpenAI’s timetable has recently accelerated behind the scenes.

My read is that a Yes is possible but still unlikely, because the stream has to end cleanly before the deadline and remain ended for 12 hours. With no fresh confirmation that the marathon is wrapping up, the market’s heavy No price looks broadly justified.

USAID looks much more likely than not to count as eliminated during Trump’s term, because the administration has already dismantled its independent operations and shifted its functions into the State Department. The main uncertainty is whether the market requires formal legal abolition, but even under that standard the path toward Yes remains materially stronger than the current price implies.

Starbucks is more likely than not to finish 2026 above 41,800 global stores. The threshold is only modestly above its last known scale, and ordinary net expansion should get it there unless management materially slows growth or closes a large number of stores.

Barron Trump being pardoned before 2029 looks very unlikely absent any known federal case or public allegation. I estimate the probability at 4%, far below the current market price.

Scheffler is already three majors deep, still elite enough to be a favorite in most big events, and he has four remaining major starts before the deadline. I think the chance he completes the career Grand Slam before 2028 is materially higher than the market implies.

Trump is already facing a meaningful cluster of legal, institutional, and policy setbacks, so a genuinely bearish 2026 is more plausible than the market implies. I still would not call it the base case because he remains politically durable and many of these fights can be delayed, narrowed, or spun as victories.

2026 has a real path to being the hottest year on record, but it still needs to beat an exceptionally warm recent benchmark, so I rate the chance as moderate rather than likely. The market price looks somewhat optimistic to me given how much 2026 will depend on the year’s ocean-atmosphere setup.

I think the market is somewhat too optimistic. With no recent confirmed token plans and a requirement for a real, publicly tradable governance token, I put the chance of Yes at 34%.

I put the chance of impeachment before Jan. 20, 2029 at 41%. Trump’s prior history and the possibility of a Democratic House keep the event alive, but the procedural hurdle is still substantial and current reporting suggests caution rather than a committed impeachment drive.

I think the Bears are more likely to end up in Indiana than at a new Illinois site by the 2028 opener. Illinois still has a plausible path through Arlington Heights or another revived deal, but the clearest recent momentum is cross-border and the timeline is getting tight.

A single quarter above 5% is plausible over the remaining Trump term, but it is still more likely than not that the economy never clears that bar. I make the Yes probability 44%, slightly above the market because the question only requires one outlier quarter, not a sustained boom.

Alibaba looks like the leading Chinese contender right now because Qwen3.8-Max has the strongest public momentum on the relevant arena leaderboard. I still put the probability below the market price because the lead appears real but not secure against a late rival update.

The odds are low that the United States will actually acquire any part of Greenland before 2029, though the question is broad enough that an unusual lease or status arrangement cannot be ruled out entirely. My independent estimate is 10%, well below the current market price.

The canal is very likely to remain under Panamanian sovereignty, and Trump’s rhetoric plus pressure on nearby assets does not amount to a true takeback. I put the Yes probability at 7%, with most of that coming from resolution ambiguity rather than an actual transfer of control.

Anthropic is the favorite, but the market looks a bit too confident for a leaderboard that can change quickly. I think Anthropic is more likely than not to finish first, though not at the extreme odds implied by the current price.

Robinhood has a modest edge to finish 2026 above 30.2 million funded customers. The base is large enough that continued product-led growth and broader consumer adoption can plausibly get it over the line, though the margin is not huge.

Under the strict wording of this market, I think a U.S. invasion that establishes control over any part of Iran is unlikely but not impossible before year-end 2026. The recent strikes and broader war activity are not enough by themselves to satisfy the control requirement, so No is the most likely outcome.

Trump keeps pressing the idea, but a real purchase would require unprecedented cooperation from Denmark and Greenland. I think the chance by the end of his term is low, around 9%, and the market looks too optimistic.

A completed U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term looks overwhelmingly unlikely. The base case is no acquisition, with only a very small tail for any purchase-like deal.

I think the chance Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is formally used during Trump’s presidency is meaningfully lower than the market implies. The main reason is that the constitutional and political thresholds are both extremely high, and the vice president plus cabinet would need to take an extraordinary, destabilizing step.

I think the market is overconfident, but the Yes outcome is still more likely than not. Grok 4.6 appears close enough to Grok 4.5 that a debut at 1440 or higher is plausible, though not close to guaranteed.

I think exactly one Supreme Court confirmation is the most likely single outcome, but the market is a bit too confident in that middle case. The aging Court makes two confirmations almost as plausible as one, while zero remains a meaningful live possibility.

I slightly favor the central-growth band, with 1.6% to 2.0% the single most likely outcome for 2036. The market looks a bit too cautious on the middle of the distribution and a bit too spread out into the tails.

Democrats have a plausible path back to Senate control, but the 2026 map still slightly favors Republicans. I put the chance of a Democratic majority at 44%, a bit below the current market price.

China overtaking the US in nominal GDP by 2030 looks unlikely. My independent estimate is well below the market, because the remaining gap is large and the time window is too short for China to close it without an unusually strong yuan or a major US downturn.

Marine Le Pen remains a credible contender if she is able to run, but her personal victory is still more likely to fail than succeed because legal eligibility and France’s second-round coalition dynamics both work against her. I put the chance of a Le Pen win below the market price, though not by a huge margin.

Elon Musk is still the most likely name to hold the top spot on December 31, 2026, but the outcome is not close to guaranteed because his wealth is highly sensitive to market swings. The market is pricing an extremely high probability, and I agree with the direction but not quite as strongly as the current price implies.

Anthropic looks like the likeliest winner at month-end, especially if the current leaderboard leaders hold steady. Still, the market price looks somewhat too confident because a late model release or a small ranking shift could easily overturn the lead.

I estimate a 35% chance of a recession in 2027. That is somewhat above the market, because the economy can look stable right up until lagged tightening, credit stress, or an external shock tip it into contraction.

Google is a long shot to end 2026 with the top Arena-ranked model, but it is not implausible because it still has the resources and technical base to ship a late-year leap. I would price a modestly higher chance than the market, but still well below one-in-five.

Anthropic still looks like the likeliest winner, but I assign meaningful late-summer upset risk from OpenAI or Google. The current market’s 84.5% yes price looks a bit rich given how close the frontier is.

My independent estimate is that Trump is unlikely to expand the H-1B program during this term, with the most probable path being tighter rules, higher costs, or at best a limited, highly selective adjustment rather than a true expansion. I put Yes at 18%.

I think there is a meaningful chance of a company making an AGI claim by Oct. 1, 2027, but the market is probably too optimistic. My independent estimate is below the current price because public announcement is harder than raw model progress, and the definition of AGI remains too contested for a clean, widely accepted declaration.

I put the chance of Trump presiding over the addition of a new state before his term ends at about 3%. The constitutional and political hurdles are enormous, and there is no visible legislative pathway underway.

Alibaba looks like the leading Chinese contender, but the final result depends on whether Qwen3.8-Max can hold its edge through a volatile leaderboard window. I see a solid majority chance for Yes, though a bit below the current market price.

Anthropic has enough frontier strength to stay in the conversation for a top-two lab spot, but the market resolves on a very specific arena leaderboard that can differ from broad benchmark narratives. I still think the more likely outcome is that another lab occupies second place at the check time, so Yes is possible but not common.

Core PCE has to cool enough by the July 2026 reading to round to 3.0 or lower, which is possible but still looks like a long shot. The market is overwhelmingly leaning No, and I agree that the most likely outcome is above the cutoff.

Ethereum has a meaningful but still limited path to $3,000 by the end of 2026. The market is pricing the event as unlikely, and that seems broadly reasonable unless crypto sentiment improves materially and ETH trends higher over the next several months.

Nvidia is still the most likely company to finish August 2026 as the world's largest by market cap, and the market price is broadly plausible. I think the true probability is a bit lower than the current quote because the final stretch includes an earnings window and enough volatility for a rival to overtake temporarily.

Count Binface is more likely than not to clear 10% in Clacton, with the best available constituency evidence clustering around 20%. A sub-10% result remains possible if polling overstates protest enthusiasm or turnout is weak, but it looks like the minority outcome.

I estimate a relatively low chance that Trump resigns before the end of the term, around 11%. The market appears somewhat too high on Yes, likely because it is leaning on speculation and long-shot tail risk rather than evidence of an actual resignation path.

I put the chance of the Department of Education being fully eliminated by January 20, 2029 at about 10%. Trump could weaken or restructure it substantially, but outright abolition requires a level of congressional cooperation that remains unlikely.

NVIDIA has a strong chance to finish 2026 as the world’s largest company by market cap, but the lead is not secure enough to justify near-certainty. I would price this somewhat below the market, with the main risk being a powerful rally in Microsoft or Apple rather than a collapse in NVIDIA itself.

I assign a modest but non-trivial chance that Trump gets a broadly favorable political and market setup in 2026, with the main hinge being the midterm outcome and whether legal resistance softens. The market looks too bearish if this is a bundled outcome rather than a single event, but it is still a low-probability result overall.

I make NYC’s chance of a 0.01% to 0.99% population increase about 46%. The most likely alternative is a small decline, but the city’s immigration support and overall scale make a slight gain a bit more likely than the market implies.

SSI has a narrow but real path to a public model release by month-end, mainly because of the August rumor, but the company’s silence and secrecy still dominate the outlook. I estimate a 14% chance of Yes.

The market is close to evenly split, but current traffic levels are still dramatically below the 60-ship threshold. I think a recovery is possible before year-end, but not likely enough to outweigh the ongoing disruption.

Hyperliquid has a plausible path to $90 if crypto risk appetite stays strong and the token remains a market leader, but the move is still demanding enough that I would price it as a minority outcome. My estimate is modestly above the market-implied 20% because of the asset’s volatility and momentum potential.

The market is somewhat more likely than not to end No. With only a short window left and no visible public confirmation of an extension, the odds of a clear mutual official announcement look modest, though still plausible if negotiators want to buy more time.

I see a low but non-trivial chance of a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before Jan. 1, 2027, with the most likely outcome still being no summit. The recent resumption of negotiator-level contacts helps, but Putin’s stated precondition that a meeting only follows an agreement keeps the probability constrained.

I put this at 2%: an actual U.S. acquisition or control of Canadian territory before 2029 would require extraordinary legal and political steps that are nowhere in evidence. The current market looks materially overstated relative to the available reporting.

Chris Wright has a real chance to be the next cabinet departure, but I put him below the most exposed cabinet figures. My independent estimate is 14%, modestly below the market because his profile is comparatively low-drama.

Alphabet has a real but still slim path to finishing September 30 as the largest company by market cap. Its valuation is already in the top tier, but it must outperform several other mega-caps at the same time, which keeps the odds low.

Samuel Alito has a meaningful chance to step down before Trump's term ends, driven by age and the strategic advantage of leaving under a Republican president. I put the probability modestly above the market, but not by much.

A September rate cut is possible but still not the base case. The Bank of Russia is more likely to wait for firmer evidence that inflation and demand are cooling before easing policy.

Starship Flight Test 14 can still launch by August 31, but the window is tight and the lack of confirming news keeps the odds well below even. I estimate a 23% chance of Yes, slightly above the current market price but still a clear underdog outcome.

The market is heavily skewed toward No, and I agree that the DC metro median home value is much more likely to stay above $512,000 than fall below it. A Yes outcome would require a noticeably weaker price print than the region appears likely to deliver by September 30.