How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

The starting point strongly favors no cuts because the Fed has already stayed on hold through the late-July meeting, and the latest policy signals still look more cautious than easing-minded. The June summary of economic projections pointing to a year-end policy rate above the current midpoint is a meaningful hawkish clue, because it implies that the median policymaker is not leaning toward cuts at all and may even tolerate tighter policy for longer if inflation remains sticky.

Market pricing also leans toward no cuts, and that matters because it reflects the most up-to-date collective read on incoming data rather than a static macro forecast. The fact that prediction markets are already assigning a high probability to zero cuts suggests that the base case is a prolonged pause, but the gap between the market-implied odds and certainty is still wide enough to leave real room for a late-year shift if the data weaken materially.

The main reason to keep this well below 100% is that the rest of the year still contains enough time for one bad employment report, a softer inflation trend, or a broader growth scare to change the Fed’s calculus. Several outside forecasts continue to expect at least one cut, which tells us the consensus is not fully settled; in a regime where the Fed has become highly data dependent, the path from a steady hold to a September or December cut can happen quickly if labor-market softness becomes convincing.

Overall, the balance of evidence says no cuts is the more likely outcome, but not overwhelmingly so. If the economy stays resilient and inflation fails to cool further, the Fed can easily end 2026 unchanged; if incoming data deteriorate, the committee has enough remaining meetings to justify one or more cuts, and that is the primary reason the probability should stay meaningfully below the market’s most bullish no-cut pricing.