Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

The core issue is not whether opposition pressure will exist, but whether a future House majority will actually vote on articles of impeachment. Right now the House remains a major barrier, and even if Democrats retake it in 2026, Reuters’ reporting says their first instinct is investigations, hearings, subpoenas, and evidence-building rather than moving directly to impeachment. That matters because this market only resolves on an actual House vote, not on inquiries, rhetoric, or introduced resolutions.

Trump’s past impeachments do raise the baseline probability, because party actors on both sides already know the playbook and the issue is politically legible. Still, a third impeachment is not automatic: Democrats would need control, a strong enough factual predicate, and leadership willing to absorb the political costs of a formal vote. The fact that the party is publicly signaling restraint is a meaningful negative, because it suggests impeachment is being treated as a conditional endpoint rather than the default response to a future majority.

At 63%, the market looks too aggressive. That price appears to overstate the odds that Democrats win the House and then decide to impeach, or that a major new scandal forces their hand, when the current evidence instead points to a slower and more selective process. I think a sub-50% probability is more defensible unless there is a clear shift in House control or a sharply damaging development that changes Democratic incentives.