Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
I think OpenAI is more likely to lag Anthropic, so the Yes outcome is only a minority possibility. The market appears to be overpricing OpenAI's visible IPO prep relative to Anthropic's earlier implied timing.
Analysis
My base case is that OpenAI does not get to the public market before Anthropic. OpenAI has the stronger evidence of preparation, including a confidential SEC filing and a large secondary share sale, but the more relevant question is timing, and the latest reporting points to a possible slip toward 2027. Anthropic, by contrast, is being discussed in some recent coverage as targeting late 2026, which gives it a meaningful head start if those windows hold.
The main reason OpenAI still has a real chance is that these timelines are unofficial and can move quickly. OpenAI has more visible IPO infrastructure, more pressure to create liquidity, and enough brand strength that it could accelerate if market conditions improve. Even so, OpenAI also has a strong incentive to optimize for valuation and governance before listing, and that tends to push public-market timing later rather than sooner.
The 87% Yes price looks too high for an event where the latest relative timing evidence leans the other way. The market seems to be treating OpenAI's filing activity as if it were a near-term listing signal, when in reality it only shows readiness. Because Anthropic's implied window is earlier and OpenAI's reported path is more delay-prone, I would price Yes closer to the low 30s unless fresh confirmed guidance changes the picture.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI has already completed more visible IPO preparation, including a confidential SEC filing and major share-sale activity.
- If OpenAI decides to prioritize listing over perfect valuation, it could still move ahead of Anthropic.
Against
- Recent reporting suggests OpenAI may not list until 2027, which gives Anthropic time to go first.
- Anthropic's reported late-2026 or October-2026 window is earlier than OpenAI's latest implied schedule.
Key drivers
- Anthropic's recent implied IPO window appears earlier than OpenAI's reported timing, which is the strongest factor favoring No.
- OpenAI's confidential filing and secondary sale show readiness, but they do not guarantee an earlier offering date.
Risk factors
- Either company could delay or accelerate based on valuation, market conditions, or internal governance decisions.
- The current evidence is mostly based on reporting rather than confirmed filings with deadlines, so rumor drift can materially change the race.
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI accelerates its timetable, files publicly, and prices in 2026 while Anthropic delays, making Yes correct.
Most likely
Anthropic gets to market first on an earlier reported timeline, while OpenAI continues preparing and lists afterward.
Worst case
Anthropic launches in late 2026 and OpenAI waits until 2027 or later, making No clearly correct.
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