Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
Alito’s age makes retirement plausible, but his recent public denial of near-term plans materially lowers the odds. I still see a meaningful chance of leaving before Trump’s term ends, just not a majority one.
Analysis
The freshest evidence points against an imminent resignation: Alito publicly said he is “here for another term,” and the reporting around him suggests no plan to retire before the court finishes its upcoming session. At 76, he is certainly old enough for retirement speculation to be reasonable, but absent a health issue or a major change in intent, many justices continue serving well past this age.
There is still a real path to a Yes outcome because the political incentives are obvious. If Alito wanted a like-minded successor, Trump’s presidency and the possibility of Republican control of the Senate would make this a favorable window, and by the end of the term he would be approaching 79. The longer the term runs, the more the odds rise that health, fatigue, or a personal decision could override his current stated intention.
Compared with the 56% market price, I think the market is leaning too heavily on age and strategic-retirement logic while underweighting the strongest current signal, which is Alito’s explicit denial. My estimate is closer to 37%, meaning Yes is plausible but still more likely than not to be No.
Arguments
For
- He is 76, an age at which many justices begin seriously considering retirement.
- A Trump presidency creates a strong incentive to time any exit for a favorable replacement.
Against
- He has directly said he is here for another term, which is the best available evidence on his current intent.
- The remaining window is limited, and justices often stay on the bench for years after reaching his age.
Key drivers
- Alito’s explicit statement that he is here for another term reduces the chance of an immediate departure.
- His age and the remaining length of Trump’s term keep voluntary retirement firmly in play.
- A Republican-appointed successor would be strategically attractive if he decides to leave before 2029.
Risk factors
- An unexpected health problem could force a resignation earlier than current signals suggest.
- A change in personal or political calculus could make a late-term retirement suddenly appealing.
Scenarios
Best case
Alito decides within the next one to two years to step down while Trump is still president, allowing a conservative successor to be confirmed.
Most likely
He remains on the bench for now, with retirement rumors recurring, but the most probable outcome is no resignation before Trump’s term ends.
Worst case
He stays on the Court through January 2029 or longer, with no resignation during Trump’s term.
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