Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028?
Scheffler is already three majors deep, still elite enough to be a favorite in most big events, and he has four remaining major starts before the deadline. I think the chance he completes the career Grand Slam before 2028 is materially higher than the market implies.
Analysis
Scheffler’s path here is much simpler than a true long-shot narrative suggests: he already owns three of the four majors and only needs one more win in the U.S. Open or Open Championship before the end of 2027. At his current level, he remains one of the very few players who can realistically be projected to win a major on pure ability rather than relying on a fluky week, and his underlying tee-to-green dominance makes him a recurring contender whenever he tees it up in a major.
The main reason this is not a near-certainty is that majors are still extremely volatile, and even the best player in the world usually wins only a small fraction of them. He has four remaining major opportunities in the window, which is enough time for variance to work in his favor, but not enough to treat the outcome as likely. The recent run of runner-up finishes is a reminder that being elite does not automatically translate into closing the specific event needed for this market.
The current 7% yes price looks far too low if the market question is truly about the career Grand Slam and not a calendar Grand Slam. A player of Scheffler’s caliber with four remaining major attempts should be priced much closer to a coin-flip than to an extreme long shot, and the market may be underweighting both his sustained dominance and the fact that he needs only one specific breakthrough, not multiple titles.
Arguments
For
- Scheffler is still producing elite ball-striking and remains one of the strongest major-week profiles in golf.
- Only one more major win is needed, and he has enough remaining opportunities for positive variance to matter.
Against
- The career Grand Slam is historically hard to complete, even for all-time great players.
- He can be dominant without winning, and recent near-misses show that contending is not the same as finishing the job.
Key drivers
- He already has three majors, so one additional win completes the market outcome.
- He has four remaining major starts before the deadline, giving him multiple high-leverage chances.
Risk factors
- Majors are high-variance events, so even the best player can easily go winless over four tries.
- An injury, slump, or a shift in form could quickly erase the advantage his current level implies.
Scenarios
Best case
Scheffler wins one of the 2027 majors, likely the Masters or Open, and completes the career Grand Slam comfortably before the deadline.
Most likely
Scheffler remains among the top major contenders, but one or two key weeks go against him and he narrowly misses the final major needed.
Worst case
He stays elite but does not win another major before 2028, leaving him stuck on three majors despite multiple close calls.
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