Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

The latest traffic readings still look decisively weak relative to the threshold. Reported transits have recently been in the low double digits on some days and around the high 30s over a full week, which is far below what would be needed for a 7-day moving average to reach 60. Because the market resolves only if that average hits 60 or more at any point by September 30, the bar is not just a brief rebound but a sustained return to near-normal throughput, and the current data do not show that kind of acceleration yet.

The broader operating environment also argues against a quick normalization. Shipping reports continue to describe elevated harassment risk, drone overflights, surveillance concerns, and route adjustments that push vessels toward alternative corridors instead of the standard pattern. When operators are still splitting traffic between nonstandard routes or turning off AIS, that is usually a sign of persistent caution rather than a clean reopening. In practical terms, the biggest users of the waterway, especially mainstream tanker and LNG operators, appear to be waiting for a much stronger security signal before resuming normal behavior.

Market pricing reflects that skepticism, but I think the implied probability is still a bit high if the question is interpreted strictly. The current Yes price near one quarter is above the more pessimistic readings in recent commentary, which have clustered closer to the high teens or low twenties. There is enough time left on the calendar for a geopolitical de-escalation, but a favorable turn would need to happen quickly and then persist long enough to lift the 7-day average decisively. That combination makes Yes a tail outcome rather than the base case, even though the possibility of a sudden diplomatic breakthrough means it cannot be priced at essentially zero.