Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

The strongest evidence available is negative: there is no reported announcement, no credible signal of imminent departure, and Alito is still actively participating in major cases. At age 76, a retirement during the next 2.5 years is certainly possible, but that alone does not make it likely; many justices at that age remain on the bench for years, especially when they remain engaged and apparently capable of doing the work.

Strategically, a conservative justice under a Republican president has an incentive to retire while the vacancy can be filled by an ideologically aligned successor, and that is the main reason to assign any meaningful yes probability. But that incentive cuts both ways: Alito may prefer to continue writing and influencing doctrine, and absent health pressure or personal reasons, justices often wait much longer than outside observers expect. The absence of any public retirement chatter matters because resignations by justices usually become detectable before they happen.

The current market price looks too high relative to the evidence. The most likely explanation is that traders are pricing age and partisan timing as if they almost guarantee a departure, or they are mixing this market with separate retirement-announcement speculation. For this specific question, the better read is that resignation is possible but still much more likely not to happen before Trump’s term ends.