Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
I estimate OpenAI has only about a 30% chance of beating Anthropic to the IPO. Anthropic’s reported late-2026 target and OpenAI’s apparent drift toward 2027 make Anthropic the likelier first mover.
Analysis
OpenAI does have an important procedural lead because it filed a confidential S-1, but that is only an early step and does not lock in a listing date. The relevant question is timing, and the recent reporting trend is not in OpenAI’s favor: multiple accounts suggest management may prefer to wait until 2027 rather than rush into a volatile tape.
Anthropic appears to have the cleaner near-term path if the reporting is accurate. Recent coverage still places it in a late-2026 window, which would allow it to beat OpenAI unless Anthropic itself slips. In a race like this, being even a few quarters ahead matters more than who filed first, especially when neither company has publicly committed to a date.
The market’s 82% price for a Yes outcome looks too high if Yes means OpenAI IPOs first. It seems to overvalue OpenAI’s head start in paperwork and its stronger brand while underweighting the reported timing gap and the fact that a confidential filing is not a completed IPO. The more likely setup is that Anthropic gets to market first, with OpenAI remaining in the process but choosing patience over speed.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI has already filed a confidential S-1, which shows it is actively preparing and could accelerate if conditions improve.
- OpenAI may choose to move sooner than expected if it wants to capitalize on momentum or reduce uncertainty around its capital structure.
Against
- Recent reporting suggests OpenAI may wait until 2027, which would almost certainly make it second if Anthropic stays on track.
- Anthropic is still being described as targeting late 2026, so the current timing edge appears to favor Anthropic.
Key drivers
- OpenAI’s reported drift toward 2027 materially reduces its chance of being first.
- Anthropic’s reported late-2026 target gives it a plausible timing advantage.
Risk factors
- Either company can delay quickly if equity markets weaken or internal conditions change.
- Confidential filing timelines are noisy, and public reporting can change before either IPO is actually priced.
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI decides to seize a favorable market window, prices in late 2026, and gets to public markets before Anthropic.
Most likely
Anthropic reaches the market first in late 2026, while OpenAI remains cautious and lists later, likely in 2027.
Worst case
OpenAI delays into 2027 or later while Anthropic completes a late-2026 listing and clearly wins the race.
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