Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
The CLARITY Act has made real legislative progress, but it still faces the hardest steps: full Senate passage, final bicameral alignment, and presidential signature before year-end. I think a Yes outcome is possible but still less likely than No.
Analysis
The key fact is that the bill is alive but incomplete. It already cleared the House and advanced through the Senate Banking Committee, which means it has survived the earliest and most visible hurdles, but it still has not received full Senate passage, has not been sent to the president, and therefore is not close to certainty. In practical terms, the market is now betting on whether Senate leadership decides to spend floor time on a complex market-structure bill and whether the two chambers can reconcile any differences quickly enough to produce a final enacted law before the end of 2026.
The calendar is the biggest drag on the Yes case. As of early August 2026, the Senate is heading into a recess period, and the remaining months of the year are crowded with other legislative priorities, possible funding fights, and election-year distractions. Bills at this stage often look promising on paper but fail because they require multiple sequential steps under time pressure, and that is especially true for broad financial regulation that can attract jurisdictional disputes, technical objections, and last-minute changes. Even though there is a merged draft and continued staff-level work, that does not by itself translate into floor action or final passage.
The market price near 30 percent seems to reflect genuine optimism about crypto legislation momentum, but I think it remains somewhat high relative to the procedural reality. Arguments for Yes are that the bill has already built institutional momentum, a public policy case exists for clarifying digital asset regulation, and leaders could still choose to move it if they want a bipartisan accomplishment. Arguments against Yes are stronger: there is no scheduled Senate vote, no cloture path has been locked in, and a comprehensive bill can easily stall once it reaches the floor politics stage. My estimate assumes the bill remains viable but that the odds of all remaining steps being completed within 2026 are still well below one-in-three.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: The bill has already passed the House and advanced in committee, which shows it has enough support to remain a live priority.
- Arguments for Yes: A merged draft and continued negotiation indicate that lawmakers are still actively shaping a path toward final passage.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: The bill still needs a full Senate vote, and there is no scheduled floor consideration.
- Arguments against Yes: The remaining 2026 legislative window is short, and broad legislation often fails when it reaches the crowded end-of-year agenda.
Key drivers
- The bill has cleared the House and a Senate committee, so the remaining obstacles are fewer but still substantial.
- The Senate has not scheduled floor action, which makes timing the central constraint on enactment.
- A merged draft suggests ongoing negotiation, but drafting progress does not guarantee final votes.
- Broad crypto market-structure legislation can attract bipartisan interest while still getting bogged down in jurisdictional disputes.
Risk factors
- The Senate calendar is tight, and recesses and year-end congestion leave limited room for a complex bill.
- The bill could lose momentum if leadership prioritizes must-pass fiscal or political items instead.
- Any disagreement between the chambers could force additional delays that push enactment beyond 2026.
- Even if Congress passes it, late-stage objections or veto dynamics could still prevent signature into law.
Scenarios
Best case
Senate leaders put the bill on the floor in September, a compromise version passes both chambers quickly, and the president signs it before the end of the year.
Most likely
The bill continues to move through negotiations and public discussion but does not clear the full Senate and finish the bicameral process before year-end.
Worst case
The bill remains stuck in the Senate through the fall, loses priority to other legislative fights, and expires without final passage in 2026.
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