Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

OpenAI has the clearest evidence of active IPO preparation, including a confidential filing in June 2026, which is a meaningful signal that it is trying to preserve an earlier listing path. On the face of the current reporting, that makes OpenAI the most likely first mover, especially because Anthropic’s signals are less definitive and remain more narrative-driven than execution-driven. In a normal environment, a company that has already filed would usually be favored to list first unless something interrupts the process.

The main reason I would not push the probability much higher is that the timing gap appears fragile. Multiple reports now suggest OpenAI may delay into 2027, and once that becomes a real possibility, Anthropic’s reported late-2026 window starts to look competitive or even ahead. Confidential filings are only the beginning of a process that can be slowed by SEC review, internal restructuring, governance issues, or simply unfavorable market conditions, and this is especially true for highly scrutinized AI companies.

The market at 80% looks somewhat too confident in an OpenAI-first outcome. That level implies a fairly clean execution path for OpenAI and a meaningful probability that Anthropic misses its own late-2026 window, but the recent reporting does not justify that much conviction. My view is that OpenAI still leads, yet the combination of delay risk and Anthropic’s own reported preparations makes this closer to a two-thirds call than a near-certain one.