Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?

Todd Blanche has the clearest structural path to becoming Trump’s next Attorney General. He is already running DOJ as acting attorney general, Trump is still publicly backing him, and the White House is continuing to treat him as the nominee rather than moving on to a cleaner alternative. That combination matters because it means Blanche has both incumbency and presidential support, which are usually the two biggest ingredients in a successful confirmation push.

The main obstacle is Senate resistance, not lack of presidential intent. Grassley’s delay after Cornyn and Tillis withheld support shows that Blanche is vulnerable to a narrow Republican bloc, and that makes the confirmation fight real rather than ceremonial. Still, the fact that Trump floated a procedural workaround suggests he is willing to keep Blanche in place and try again later, which increases the odds that Blanche eventually gets over the line if Republican politics shift over the next several years.

Relative to the current market, I think Blanche is modestly underpriced rather than dramatically mispriced. A 64% market price is reasonable, but it may be discounting how often these fights resolve in favor of the president once the nominee is already installed in an acting capacity and the White House is committed. The biggest counterweight is that Trump could decide the hassle is not worth it and pivot to another loyalist, but absent that, Blanche remains the favorite by a meaningful margin.