Will Trump resign during his term?

On the merits, the baseline case is that Trump stays in office unless something truly extraordinary happens. A president resigning is historically rare, Trump has every incentive to resist that outcome, and there is no credible evidence in the supplied context that a resignation process is underway or even being actively contemplated. The most realistic paths to an early exit are severe health deterioration, an overwhelming personal/political crisis, or a deal-like decision in the face of catastrophe, and none of those look close today.

The case for Yes is not zero because the remaining term is long, Trump is older, and any presidency carries nontrivial legal, political, and medical tail risk. A sudden health event or an unprecedented scandal could change the calculus quickly, and markets sometimes move on the possibility that a president might step aside if a situation becomes untenable. Still, those are tail risks, and the question here is specifically resignation, which is a narrower and more voluntary act than removal, incapacity, or temporary transfer of power.

The current 17% Yes price looks high for a literal resignation question. It likely reflects traders blending together resignation, removal, incapacitation, and general early-exit risk, or using adjacent markets as a proxy for “out as president.” On a strict read, I think the market is overpricing the event, and a fairer estimate is closer to the low single digits to high single digits than the mid-teens.