US real GDP growth in 2036?
I put the highest probability on the 1.6% to 2.0% growth band for 2036, and I think the market is somewhat underpricing that center. The official long-run CBO anchor and the private forecast cluster both point to a slow-growth economy near 1.8%.
Analysis
The best anchor available is the CBO’s long-run outlook, which has real GDP growth averaging 1.8% per year from 2027 to 2036. That puts the 1.6% to 2.0% band directly on top of the consensus center, and the private forecasts cited in the context are broadly consistent with that slow-growth regime rather than with either recessionary contraction or a sustained high-growth boom. Recent quarter-by-quarter data are not decisive for a 2036 call, but they do not suggest a structural break away from trend either.
Relative to the market, I think the 26% price on 1.6% to 2.0% is too low. The market appears to be spreading too much probability across the tails and the wider set of other bins, while the long-run evidence still says the modal outcome should sit close to 2%. My independent estimate is closer to 45% for the central band, with the next most likely outcome being a slightly stronger 2.1% to 2.5% year rather than a recession or an extreme boom.
The key reason not to push the probability even higher is that 2036 is far enough out for cyclical and structural surprises to matter. A recession, policy shock, financial accident, or an unexpectedly strong productivity acceleration could all move the result away from the center. But those tail cases still look less likely than a continuation of the slow-growth baseline, and a 6.1% or above outcome remains especially remote because it would require an extraordinary productivity regime shift or a very unusual cyclical bounce.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: The best official long-run forecast centers on 1.8%, which makes 1.6% to 2.0% the most natural single outcome.
- Arguments for Yes: Recent independent forecasts also point to slow-growth conditions rather than a regime of either contraction or rapid expansion.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: 2036 is far enough away that the economy could easily land in the adjacent 2.1% to 2.5% band instead.
- Arguments against Yes: A structural downturn or an external shock could pull growth below 1.6%, while a productivity surprise could push it above 2.0%.
Key drivers
- The CBO’s 1.8% long-run average is the strongest anchor for 2036 and sits squarely in the 1.6% to 2.0% band.
- Private forecasts in the provided context cluster around 1.8% to 2.0%, reinforcing a low-to-mid 2% ceiling.
- Structural headwinds like demographics and mature-economy convergence make very high 2036 growth hard to sustain.
- Tail risk remains meaningful because the forecast horizon is long enough for recessions, shocks, or productivity surprises.
Risk factors
- An AI-driven productivity surge could shift growth into the 2.1% to 2.5% or higher bins.
- A recession, financial crisis, or policy mistake could push 2036 growth into the 1.5% range or below.
- Forecast uncertainty is large this far out, so the realized distribution can still deviate materially from the consensus anchor.
Scenarios
Best case
Growth stays close to trend, productivity is steady but not explosive, and 2036 lands in the 1.6% to 2.0% band as the economy remains on the CBO-style slow-growth path.
Most likely
The economy continues to grow at a modest trend rate, with the highest probability concentrated in 1.6% to 2.0% and a meaningful but smaller chance of slightly faster growth.
Worst case
A recession, financial stress, or policy shock hits in 2036 and growth falls into the 1.1% to 1.5% band, 0.0% or below, or another weak outcome outside the central range.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6% to 2.0% | 45% | 26% |
| 2.1% to 2.5% | 18% | 11% |
| 6.1% or Above | 9% | 9% |
| 1.1% to 1.5% | 16% | 8% |
| 0.0% or Below | 12% | 7% |
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