Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

The factual baseline is weak for a Yes outcome right now: there is an introduced impeachment resolution, but no evidence of completed House impeachment, let alone Senate conviction. That matters because the market question requires both steps, and the Senate hurdle is far higher than the House hurdle. Even in an extremely polarized environment, removal requires a two-thirds Senate vote, which typically demands a collapse in support from the president’s own party or an event so severe that lawmakers view continued office as untenable.

Historically, presidential removal has effectively never happened in the United States. Nixon resigned before impeachment could be completed, and Trump’s first two impeachments both ended in acquittal. Those precedents suggest that even serious allegations or strong partisan opposition are usually not enough. The remaining time window is meaningful, but time cuts both ways: it allows for more scandal risk, yet it also gives the administration opportunities to weather controversies, and any 2026 election shifts are still uncertain.

The current market price of 18% looks high relative to the actual procedural and historical barriers. I think the market is pricing in a broad tail risk that Trump faces some major escalation, perhaps from criminal, constitutional, or political crises, but it appears to underweight how hard it is to convert scandal into both chambers aligning for removal. My independent estimate is materially lower than the market because the default outcome in modern U.S. politics is survival, not removal, unless there is an overwhelming, bipartisan break.