Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
Samuel Alito has a meaningful chance of retiring during Trump’s term, but the absence of any public resignation signal makes a near-certain outcome too aggressive. I put the probability materially below the market at 43%.
Analysis
The strongest fact in the current record is that Alito has shown no public sign of planning to resign, and the recent reporting points to him continuing to serve rather than preparing an exit. His active participation in major 2026 decisions argues against any imminent departure, which matters because Supreme Court justices usually leave only when they have decided to do so, not because of routine speculation.
At the same time, the calendar does create real incentive. Alito is in his mid-70s, and Trump’s presidency offers a politically favorable confirmation window for a conservative successor, so a strategic retirement would make sense if he wants to step down at all. That said, justices often stay longer than outside observers expect, and without health problems, personal statements, or a clear retirement pattern, the base rate for a voluntary exit over the next three and a half years is still far from certain.
The 66% market price looks too high relative to the evidence provided. I think the market is overweighting age and the obvious strategic logic of retiring under a friendly president, while underweighting the fact that there is no direct indication of an impending resignation and that many justices simply remain on the bench until they have a much stronger personal reason to leave.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: Alito is old enough that a retirement within the next several years is a realistic possibility.
- Arguments for Yes: A Republican presidency reduces the risk of losing ideological control of the seat, which favors a strategic resignation.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: There is no public resignation announcement or credible sign that an exit is being prepared.
- Arguments against Yes: His recent work on major cases suggests he is still actively serving and not winding down.
Key drivers
- Alito’s age makes a departure before January 2029 plausible even without any public retirement signal.
- Trump’s term gives him an ideologically favorable moment to step down if he wants a safe conservative successor.
- Recent reporting and court activity suggest continued service rather than an active exit plan.
Risk factors
- Unexpected health or family developments could accelerate a retirement at any time.
- A change in political or personal calculus could make him wait until after Trump’s term, or stay even longer.
Scenarios
Best case
Alito decides to retire while Trump is still president, allowing a conservative replacement to be confirmed quickly.
Most likely
He continues serving through the near term with no immediate resignation, and any eventual departure depends on health and whether he chooses to time an exit for a favorable confirmation environment.
Worst case
He remains on the Court through the end of Trump’s term and only leaves later, or not at all during the market window.
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