Edges for Jul 25, 2026

The market looks heavily tilted toward Yes because the supplied reporting already indicates that Iran’s top leadership has changed, with Mojtaba Khamenei named as supreme leader or, at minimum, the old leadership structure replaced by an interim council. The main uncertainty is definitional, but under the market’s broad language a Yes outcome is more likely than the current price suggests.

I assess a low but nonzero chance that Barron Trump receives a presidential pardon before Jan. 21, 2029, because there is no known underlying criminal case that would make a pardon necessary. The market’s near-even price looks materially too high for a normal pardon outcome.

I make the bear-case outcome moderately likely in 2026, at about 58%, because Trump is facing a growing stack of high-salience legal and institutional reversals rather than a single isolated controversy. The market’s 13% Yes price looks far too low if the event is defined as meaningful negative developments occurring during the year.

The market is pricing in a low chance of Ethereum reaching $3,000 by the end of 2026, but the broader forecast landscape is more balanced than the current odds imply. My assessment is that $3,000 is achievable but still slightly more likely than not to be missed, given the need for sustained bullish catalysts and a meaningful price recovery from current levels.

My independent read is that the market’s Yes price is a bit too high. OpenAI is more likely than Anthropic to have the more consequential IPO process, but the balance of reporting currently leans toward Anthropic listing first if both proceed on the reported timelines.

Todd Blanche remains the clear favorite because he is already the nominee and is serving as acting attorney general, but the confirmation path is not risk-free. I put the independent probability that Blanche ends up as Trump's next confirmed attorney general materially below the market's implied certainty, though still high.

The market is heavily tilted toward No because July inflation would need to fall from 3.5% in June to 3.1% or lower, and the available nowcasts cluster above that cutoff. A Yes outcome is possible if energy and other monthly prices cool again, but it requires another strong downside surprise.

The market is already pricing a very high chance that MrBeast will say at least one of the listed number words five or more times, and that seems reasonable given his typical scripting style. I still think the price is somewhat elevated because not every MrBeast video is heavily number-driven, but the balance of evidence favors Yes.

Moonshot is still a credible front-runner, but the current evidence does not support a strong favorite position. The market’s pricing and the leaderboard context suggest a near-contested race, with Moonshot slightly more likely than not to keep the top spot by the September 30 check.

I assign a moderately high but not overwhelming chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026. Market pricing and the Fed’s own June projections lean toward at least one increase, but a large share of economists still expect no change this year.

HBO Max is the current favorite, mainly because it leads the nominations and has recently been one of the strongest Emmy performers. Still, the gap between nominations and actual wins leaves enough uncertainty that the market is not close to locked in.

Mbappé has a real but secondary chance to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or. His individual output and World Cup profile keep him in contention, but the market and recent form point to stronger candidates ahead of him.

NVIDIA has a strong chance to remain the largest company by market cap on August 31, but the race with Apple is still close enough that a short-term reversal is plausible. I would price Yes above 50%, but not as high as the current market implies.

The market should still lean toward no cut in September, but the July easing and the ongoing disinflation trend leave a meaningful chance of another reduction. My estimate is that a September rate decrease is more likely than the market price implies, but still not the base case.

Alibaba is the market favorite and has a credible path to staying on top, but the lead is not fully secure because Moonshot and other Chinese models could still shift the ranking before month-end. I would put Alibaba’s chance slightly below the current market price because the resolution depends on the exact leaderboard state on July 31, not just broader benchmark narrative.

I estimate a moderately high chance that Trump says “percent” at least 15 times, but not as high as the market implies. The best case for Yes is a data-heavy economic or policy speech; the main case for No is that Trump often speaks in broad rhetoric without repeatedly using that exact word.

The market should be interpreted as a question about a ground invasion or occupation, not just airstrikes. Based on the current evidence, the U.S. has already attacked Iran militarily in 2026 but has not shown the ground-force buildup that would indicate an actual invasion, so the most likely outcome is No.

The market is only slightly tilted toward Yes, but the underlying shipping data still looks materially below the 60-call threshold. I assess a modestly below-even chance that IMF PortWatch will show a sustained enough recovery by year-end.

The CLARITY Act is more likely than not to fall short of becoming law by the end of 2026, though the path is still open if the Senate acts quickly. The market’s 36.5% Yes price looks somewhat low relative to the bill’s progress, but the remaining procedural hurdles and time pressure still make No the likelier outcome.

My independent estimate is that a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before Jan. 1, 2027 is unlikely, but not as impossible as the market implies. I put the chance at 22%, with the main upside coming from a sudden ceasefire or a narrowly scripted summit and the main downside from the continuing public resistance on both sides.

Moonshot is the current leader, and the market has already priced it as the favorite, but the lead is not large enough to treat this as near-certain. I would still favor Moonshot, though slightly less strongly than the market does, because a late-August challenger from Anthropic or OpenAI could realistically overtake it.

Anthropic is still the clear favorite, but the market is pricing in a meaningful chance that another company overtakes it on the single arena.ai snapshot that matters. My estimate is slightly below the market’s current Yes price because the outcome depends on one leaderboard at one time, which leaves room for a late reversal.

Iceman looks like a legitimate contender, but the market price implies it is still a long shot to finish as Spotify’s top album of 2026. The strongest read is that it will remain highly competitive yet likely lose out to another album with broader year-long streaming accumulation.

NVIDIA is the likelier outcome, but the edge is not secure enough to treat this as a lock. The market’s Yes price looks broadly reasonable because NVIDIA has recently led Apple, yet the race remains tight enough that a modest swing could still flip the result by month-end.

James Ho is a plausible conservative shortlist name, but the evidence provided does not show a vacancy, a nomination, or a Senate confirmation path yet. My independent estimate is well below the market’s 17% for Yes, because the event requires a specific chain of political and institutional steps that remains unobserved.

The most likely outcome is No. Traffic has shown some signs of reopening, but the available evidence still points to a long way to go before the 7-day average reaches 60 and stays there by September 30.

The most likely outcome is that Trump will significantly shrink and partially hollow out the Department of Education, but not fully eliminate it before January 20, 2029. The market’s 12% Yes price looks somewhat low for a live effort that is already moving functions out of the department, but full abolition still faces major legislative barriers.

The Hawk: Season 1 has a real chance to finish near the top, but the available chart evidence points away from it being the global #1 this week. The most likely outcome is that another title, especially Little House on the Prairie: Season 1, remains ahead globally.

Scottie Scheffler is good enough to win the missing U.S. Open before 2028, but the market is right that the event is still a low-probability long shot. My independent estimate is meaningfully higher than the current price because one elite player with repeated major contention can convert this outcome with just one breakthrough win, but it still remains unlikely.

My independent estimate is that Trump is unlikely to expand the H-1B program in the sense of increasing access or capacity during his term. The evidence instead points to a program that is being narrowed, filtered toward higher-paid workers, and made more expensive to use.

I make this a moderately likely No. The market is pricing Yes as the favorite, but the publicly reported context points to a formal, eulogistic tribute rather than a profane or highly repetitive off-the-cuff passage.

I estimate a slightly sub-50% chance of another pandemic before GTA VI launches, with the market close to fair value. The short remaining window before the scheduled November 19, 2026 release lowers the odds, but the event is still plausible given how pandemics are rare, unpredictable, and not signaled by the provided news.

NVIDIA is the favorite to finish 2026 as the world’s largest company by market cap, but the lead is not so wide that the outcome is close to certain. The current market-implied probability and the available market-cap snapshots both support a modest Yes lean rather than a strong conviction.

I assess a low but nontrivial chance that the U.S. acquires some part of Greenland before 2029, with the most plausible path being a narrow, negotiated status or base arrangement rather than full sovereignty. The legal, political, and public-opinion barriers are still substantial, so the event is more likely to fail than succeed.

CF Montréal look like a modest underdog against Inter Miami, and the market’s 31.5% Yes price is broadly in line with the available matchup signals. Montréal can win at home, but the balance of evidence still leans toward No.

The market favors Yes slightly, and the recent evidence points to Musk ending July 31 below $0.70T only if there is a meaningful further drop from already elevated levels. Based on the latest snapshots, I think the threshold is more likely to hold above $0.70T than fall below it.

I lean slightly toward MrBeast’s next video landing below 40 million week-1 views, but only narrowly. His ceiling is far above that threshold, yet recent evidence also shows meaningful volatility and at least one recent upload underperformed relative to his biggest launches.

I would price this as a low-to-moderate Yes, but below the current market. MrBeast’s gaming videos often involve repeated stakes, totals, and escalating counts, yet getting any one of the three exact words said 10+ times is still a fairly specific threshold.

I estimate a 41% chance that Austin Metro’s reported median home value will be below $446,000 on September 30. The latest metro data and the market’s own pricing both lean above the threshold, but the gap is small enough that a continued softening or methodology shift could still produce a sub-$446,000 reading.