Edges for Jul 24, 2026

Daniel Negreanu is overwhelmingly likely to cash in the 2026 WSOP Main Event. The event has already reached the final table, where all nine players are guaranteed at least $1,000,000, so a cash is effectively locked in if he is one of those finalists.

LeBron’s next contract is overwhelmingly likely to be at or above $4 million annually, not under it. The most credible reporting points to a minimum-level or near-minimum deal around a 2-year, $8 million structure, which lands at exactly $4 million per year rather than below the threshold.

The market should be treated as heavily favoring Yes if it is resolved by whether the U.S. has already commenced military action against Iran, because the provided sources say U.S. combat operations and strikes began in 2026. If the market instead requires a ground invasion or occupation, the evidence is much weaker and the outcome could still be No.

The market’s Yes side is still favored by the public information, but not overwhelmingly by the underlying box office evidence. Based on the current forecast band and the film’s unusually strong weekday hold, I estimate a modestly above-even chance that the second weekend comes in under $74M.

I assess a high probability that USAID will be eliminated in the practical, market-relevant sense during Trump’s term. The reporting shows the agency has already been effectively dismantled and folded into the State Department, though there is some legal ambiguity about whether a formal statutory abolition has fully occurred.

I make the bear-case outcome moderately likely in 2026, at about 58%, because Trump is facing a growing stack of high-salience legal and institutional reversals rather than a single isolated controversy. The market’s 13% Yes price looks far too low if the event is defined as meaningful negative developments occurring during the year.

I put the chance of McConnell stepping down from the Senate before his term ends at 18%. The strongest evidence points to him intending to serve out his term, while the main upside risk is an unexpected health-driven resignation or other vacancy event.

The Hawk: Season 1 looks like the clear favorite to remain the top US Netflix show this week. The market’s 71% Yes price is reasonable, but the strongest live evidence points a bit higher than that because the show is already leading current U.S. rankings.

I estimate a low-to-moderate chance that the market resolves to No Acquisition during Trump’s term, but not as high as the market implies. The most likely outcome is still no completed acquisition, yet the probability of some negotiated transfer mechanism is meaningfully higher than a near-lock on failure.

My independent estimate is that there is a modest chance of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before Jan. 1, 2027, but the odds remain below even. Public signaling exists on both sides, yet the Kremlin’s repeated preconditions and recent reporting that Russia may avoid substantive talks until 2027 make a meeting unlikely.

2026 looks very likely to finish as one of the hottest years ever, but the evidence points more toward second place than a new all-time record. The market’s No side is still favored because the strongest forecasts leave meaningful room for 2024 to remain the hottest year.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 by December 31, 2026 looks plausible but not favored. The market is pricing a low-to-moderate chance, and the forecast landscape is split between many models clustered below $3,000 and a smaller set of very bullish institutional targets.

Alibaba is the favorite to finish with the top Chinese model by the end of July, but the margin is narrower than the current market price suggests. The main reason is that Alibaba already appears to hold the leading Chinese position on relevant leaderboards, while the biggest threat is a late move from Moonshot or another Chinese competitor.

My independent assessment is that a Trump-led U.S. “take back” of the Panama Canal is very unlikely, but not impossible if the market is using a broad interpretation of “take back” that includes major concessions short of sovereignty transfer. I put the chance of a true reacquisition or transfer of control at 12%.

Madonna is starting from the mid-50M range, so she needs a large late-summer surge to reach 62M. The market price near 20% looks broadly reasonable, and I would rate the chance of Yes at 18%.

The Hawk: Season 1 has a real chance to finish near the top, but the available chart evidence points away from it being the global #1 this week. The most likely outcome is that another title, especially Little House on the Prairie: Season 1, remains ahead globally.

I estimate a 76% chance that the Fed makes no rate cuts in 2026. The market is already heavily priced toward that outcome, and the latest Fed guidance plus several major bank calls support a full-year hold, though a meaningful minority still expects at least one cut.

My independent estimate is that a cabinet member being impeached before January 1, 2027 is unlikely but materially more plausible than the market implies. I put the probability at 12%, above the current 8.5% market price because impeachment requires only a House majority and the period still allows for a sudden scandal or political crisis.

Gavin Newsom is a meaningful contender, but the market and the broader field both suggest he is more likely than not to lose the 2028 Democratic nomination. His current standing is strong enough to keep him in the top tier, but not strong enough to make him a clear favorite against a fragmented but improving field.

Bad Bunny looks like the leading candidate, but the market is not close to settled because late-2026 streaming momentum from a major English-language rival could still overtake him. I would price Yes at a strong favorite, though somewhat below the market’s current level.

CDU is a live contender, but the current polling picture does not make it the clear favorite to win the most seats. The market’s No price looks reasonable because CDU is usually near the top but not consistently ahead of the field.

NVIDIA has a real chance to finish July as the second-largest company, but the market is still volatile enough that Apple or Microsoft can easily displace it on the final close. The current pricing appears to lean too hard toward No relative to the recent evidence of a very tight race.

Alibaba has a plausible path to finishing second among Chinese AI companies, but the race is still close enough that I would rate it below even odds. The market-implied probability and the recent model news both support Alibaba as a serious contender, yet Moonshot and DeepSeek remain credible threats if rankings shift before the August 31 check.

Mbappé has a plausible path to winning, but the current evidence still points more strongly to a loss than a win. His elite scoring profile keeps him in the mix, yet the market and most odds sources place him behind several rivals, especially Harry Kane and sometimes Lamine Yamal or Ousmane Dembélé.

The market is strongly tilted toward No, because the available reporting suggests Mojtaba Khamenei has already been installed as Iran’s supreme leader and remains involved in decision-making. The main Yes path would require credible reporting that he is removed, detained, incapacitated, or otherwise loses effective control before September 30.

The market is only slightly tilted toward Yes, but the underlying shipping data still looks materially below the 60-call threshold. I assess a modestly below-even chance that IMF PortWatch will show a sustained enough recovery by year-end.

I estimate a modestly above-even chance that the Bears end up with a new stadium location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 regular season, but the Indiana path is now the stronger rival. The market looks a bit too optimistic on Illinois because the team has publicly advanced Hammond while Illinois legislative support remains unsettled.

Scottie Scheffler is good enough to win the missing U.S. Open before 2028, but the market is right that the event is still a low-probability long shot. My independent estimate is meaningfully higher than the current price because one elite player with repeated major contention can convert this outcome with just one breakthrough win, but it still remains unlikely.

Anthropic is still the clear favorite, but the market is pricing in a meaningful chance that another company overtakes it on the single arena.ai snapshot that matters. My estimate is slightly below the market’s current Yes price because the outcome depends on one leaderboard at one time, which leaves room for a late reversal.

United Russia remains the likeliest party to gain the most seats, but the market is pricing a meaningful chance that a challenger could outperform it on seat gains. I would still lean Yes, though not strongly, because United Russia’s polling lead and institutional advantages remain substantial.

The market strongly favors a Yes outcome, and that pricing is broadly consistent with the available evidence. I assess a high likelihood that Predict.fun’s token will be above $50M FDV one day after launch, though the main uncertainty is whether launch happens cleanly and with sufficient liquidity.

NVIDIA is the favorite to finish 2026 as the world’s largest company by market cap, but the edge is not overwhelming because the lead depends on sustained AI-driven growth and no sharp relative re-rating in Apple, Alphabet, or another mega-cap. I would price the Yes outcome somewhat below the current market, because the starting lead is large but late-year market dynamics can still change materially.

Trump is meaningfully more likely to be impeached than removed, but the combined event of impeached and removed before his term ends still looks unlikely. My independent estimate is below the market’s 17% on Yes because removal requires an exceptionally steep Senate threshold that current reporting does not show is within reach.

I գնահատը the chance of Trump being impeached before Jan. 20, 2029 at 68%. There is already active impeachment effort and at least one filed resolution, but the decisive factor is whether Democrats regain the House after 2026, which would make a vote materially more plausible.

Spain is a legitimate favorite, but the true chance of winning a World Cup this far out is still modest. I estimate Spain around 21% to win, slightly above the market, with France and England as the main threats and Brazil/Argentina still viable dark horses.

My independent estimate is that Trump is unlikely to expand the H-1B program in the sense of increasing access or capacity during his term. The evidence instead points to a program that is being narrowed, filtered toward higher-paid workers, and made more expensive to use.

HBO Max is the current favorite, mainly because it leads the nominations and has recently been one of the strongest Emmy performers. Still, the gap between nominations and actual wins leaves enough uncertainty that the market is not close to locked in.

I estimate a slightly sub-50% chance of another pandemic before GTA VI launches, with the market close to fair value. The short remaining window before the scheduled November 19, 2026 release lowers the odds, but the event is still plausible given how pandemics are rare, unpredictable, and not signaled by the provided news.

A rate hike in 2026 looks more likely than not, but not overwhelmingly so. The Fed’s June projections, rising inflation concerns, and market pricing all support a hike, while several major banks still expect no change through year-end.

The most likely outcome is that Elon Musk stays under 40 counted posts in the July 25 to July 27 window, but the margin is not large. The market currently leans over 40, yet the sub-40 outcome remains plausible because the window is short and recent activity has been volatile.