Bank of Russia decision in September?

The most important fact is that the Bank of Russia has already resumed easing, cutting the key rate to 14.00% on 24 July 2026 after previous reductions in April and June. That matters because it shows the July meeting was not a one-off, and the central bank is willing to keep lowering rates when it judges inflation and growth conditions allow it. At the same time, the bank has explicitly said that further decisions will depend on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown, inflation expectations, and external and domestic risks, which makes September a genuinely data-dependent meeting rather than a mechanical continuation of cuts.

The case for a September cut is that the easing cycle is already established and the policy rate remains restrictive relative to the disinflation process. The July decision surprised most analysts, which suggests the bank is willing to move faster than many expected if incoming data support it. If inflation continues to ease and expectations improve over the summer, the Bank of Russia could view another modest cut in September as consistent with its gradual easing framework, especially if it wants to support growth while keeping real rates high enough to preserve disinflation.

The case against a September cut is that the central bank has also been emphasizing caution, and the July move came alongside a higher inflation forecast and warnings about inflation risks. Reports point to persistent concern about fuel prices, refinery disruptions, and the possibility of renewed inflation pressure, all of which would argue for a pause so policymakers can assess whether July’s cut was premature. The fact that a market snapshot still showed no change as the largest outcome, and commentary expected a later cut rather than an immediate one, suggests the most likely path is a hold in September followed by another cut only if inflation data remain favorable.

Relative to the market price of 20.5% for a September decrease, I think the probability of a cut is higher than that but not high enough to make it the favorite. The easing cycle, recent surprise cuts, and the bank’s growth concerns support a non-trivial chance of another reduction, but the explicit emphasis on gradualism and inflation risk keeps a pause as the more likely single outcome.