Edges for Jul 26, 2026

The market looks heavily tilted toward Yes because the supplied reporting already indicates that Iran’s top leadership has changed, with Mojtaba Khamenei named as supreme leader or, at minimum, the old leadership structure replaced by an interim council. The main uncertainty is definitional, but under the market’s broad language a Yes outcome is more likely than the current price suggests.

The Hawk: Season 1 is a strong contender, but the latest available weekly data still places it at #3 globally rather than #2. Given the reported gap behind I Will Find You and the current market price, I think a Yes outcome is possible but materially less likely than the market implies.

Yes is highly likely. The available reporting indicates USAID has already been functionally dismantled and absorbed into the State Department, leaving only a thin legal-shell question about whether the market requires formal statutory elimination.

I assess a low but nonzero chance that Barron Trump receives a presidential pardon before Jan. 21, 2029, because there is no known underlying criminal case that would make a pardon necessary. The market’s near-even price looks materially too high for a normal pardon outcome.

I lean slightly toward MrBeast’s next video landing below 40 million week-1 views, but only narrowly. His ceiling is far above that threshold, yet recent evidence also shows meaningful volatility and at least one recent upload underperformed relative to his biggest launches.

I assign a low-to-moderate chance that another pandemic is formally recognized before GTA VI releases. The current evidence shows no active global emergency on the scale of a new pandemic, so the market’s near-50% pricing looks too high for a four-month horizon.

OpenAI is still the likelier first mover, but not by the wide margin implied by the market. The confidential S-1 gives OpenAI a real process advantage, yet the reported timing leaves enough room for Anthropic to beat it if OpenAI slips into 2027.

I assess a moderate chance that 2026 is a “bad year” for Trump, but not a guaranteed one. The legal and political drag is real and multi-front, yet the market appears to be pricing in too much resilience given how many issues are still active.

The market question is whether July 2026 U.S. annual CPI prints at 3.1% or lower. Based on June’s 3.5% reading, current nowcasts around the low 3% range, and the market’s very strong bias toward higher inflation, I think a Yes outcome is unlikely but not impossible.

Todd Blanche remains the clear favorite because he is already the nominee and is serving as acting attorney general, but the confirmation path is not risk-free. I put the independent probability that Blanche ends up as Trump's next confirmed attorney general materially below the market's implied certainty, though still high.

Bad Bunny remains the leading candidate, but the market price appears somewhat aggressive given that Spotify’s 2026 year-end outcome is still months away and current mid-year signals are not definitive. I assess a meaningful edge for Yes, but not as high as the market implies.

I assess a modest but meaningful chance that the bull case for Trump in 2026 is realized, driven by political resilience, court-backed executive strength, and ongoing headline attention. The market’s very low Yes price looks too pessimistic given that several components of the bull case still appear alive.

The market’s Yes case is moderately strong because Trump’s Michigan remarks are expected to be an economy-focused political speech, and that topic often invites repeated percentage language. Still, 15+ uses of the exact word “percent” is a fairly high threshold, so I rate Yes below the current market price.

The market’s Yes side is too high relative to the available evidence. Recent actual GDP prints and official forecast revisions suggest South Korea is more likely than not to stay at or above 2.0% YoY in Q3 2026, so the sub-2% outcome looks unlikely.

Solana has a plausible path to $140 by year-end 2026, but the current evidence leans slightly bearish because many near-term and algorithmic forecasts sit below that level. The market’s 18% Yes price looks directionally reasonable, though I would assign a somewhat higher chance than the market does because bullish institutional scenarios and ETF-driven re-rating remain credible.

My independent estimate is that a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before Jan. 1, 2027 is unlikely, but not as impossible as the market implies. I put the chance at 22%, with the main upside coming from a sudden ceasefire or a narrowly scripted summit and the main downside from the continuing public resistance on both sides.

The most likely outcome is No. Traffic has shown some signs of reopening, but the available evidence still points to a long way to go before the 7-day average reaches 60 and stays there by September 30.

I assess a low but nontrivial chance that the U.S. acquires some part of Greenland before 2029, with the most plausible path being a narrow, negotiated status or base arrangement rather than full sovereignty. The legal, political, and public-opinion barriers are still substantial, so the event is more likely to fail than succeed.

The most likely outcome is still that Trump is not impeached and removed before the term ends, but the risk is meaningfully higher than a normal presidential baseline because impeachment calls are active and politically salient. I put the independent chance of a Yes outcome at 26%.

I assess a very high probability that there will be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump’s term. The legal, political, and public-opinion barriers are overwhelming, and the market’s pricing of roughly 82% for No looks directionally right, though I would put Yes a bit higher than the market implies.

I put the chance of Trump resigning before the end of his term at 11%. The baseline remains low because there is no credible evidence of an imminent resignation path, and the constitutional and political hurdles are substantial.

The most likely outcome is that Trump will significantly shrink and partially hollow out the Department of Education, but not fully eliminate it before January 20, 2029. The market’s 12% Yes price looks somewhat low for a live effort that is already moving functions out of the department, but full abolition still faces major legislative barriers.

Trump saying "Hell" at least twice is possible, but the pre-event evidence does not point strongly to repeated use of that exact word. The market price of 29% looks slightly high to me, so I assess the true chance a bit lower.

The market is heavily tilted toward Yes, and that makes sense because Rick is the central character and a finale episode is likely to be dialogue-heavy. Still, 20+ explicit mentions is a fairly specific threshold, so I would price it slightly below the market and treat Yes as likely but not near-certain.

United Russia remains the favorite to gain the most seats, driven by incumbency, institutional control, and a strong seat baseline. Still, the market is rationally pricing a meaningful upset risk because opposition parties could outperform expectations in a lower-turnout or fragmented contest.

My independent estimate is that Trump is more likely than not to fail to “take back” the Panama Canal by the event deadline. The current market is already aligned with that view, and I think the true Yes probability is materially below 50% because the legal, diplomatic, and operational barriers are very high.

I think the chance of the U.S. acquiring new territory before Jan. 1, 2027 is low but meaningfully above the market price, at about 11%. Greenland is the only plausible path, but it would require a fast and highly visible political breakthrough that currently has little evidence behind it.

NVIDIA is still the favorite, but the margin is not stable enough to treat this as close to certain. The market is pricing a strong Yes, yet the recent lead changes with Apple and the dispersion across data feeds make a meaningful No case.

The CLARITY Act still has a meaningful path to becoming law in 2026, but it remains stuck before final Senate passage and faces a nontrivial cloture hurdle. The market’s current price looks broadly reasonable, though I would slightly lean below 50% because the calendar and legislative friction are still significant.

I assess a low but nontrivial chance that a Cabinet member will be impeached before January 1, 2027. The strongest reason for Yes is that impeachment of cabinet officials is constitutionally available and has happened recently with Mayorkas, but the historical rate remains extremely rare.

The most likely outcome is that the U.S. does not acquire any part of Canada before 2029. Trump’s rhetoric and tariff pressure raise the odds above a pure zero, but there is still no concrete legal, diplomatic, or military path underway toward territorial transfer.

A 50 bps or larger cut in August looks unlikely, but not impossible. The most probable outcome is another gradual 25 bps cut or no change, with the market’s small Yes price reflecting tail risk rather than a base case.