Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?

The strongest evidence points against a meeting: Russia’s public line is that no summit is planned unless lower-level negotiators first prepare the substance, and Putin has recently said there is no point in meeting yet. That posture is consistent with the last several years of negotiations, in which both sides have remained far apart on core issues such as territory, security guarantees, and the sequencing of any peace deal.

That said, the probability is not zero because this kind of event can happen quickly if political conditions change. Zelenskyy continues to push for direct leader-level talks, and recent reporting suggests Ukraine is still trying to build toward a broader diplomatic format involving the U.S. and Russia. If battlefield pressure, external mediation, or a partial ceasefire creates a need for leaders to publicly endorse an agreement, a meeting could be arranged on short notice.

Compared with the current market price, I think the market is somewhat too pessimistic rather than too optimistic. The 14% price already reflects the substantial obstacles, but I would assign a somewhat higher probability because the event definition is broad enough that even a tightly controlled encounter, a peace-signing photo op, or a hastily arranged bilateral on the margins of a larger summit would count as a yes.

Even so, the balance of evidence still leans no because both governments currently appear to prefer leverage-building over direct presidential compromise. Unless there is a meaningful diplomatic breakthrough well before late 2026, the default outcome remains no meeting before the deadline.