Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
My independent read is that the market’s Yes price is a bit too high. OpenAI is more likely than Anthropic to have the more consequential IPO process, but the balance of reporting currently leans toward Anthropic listing first if both proceed on the reported timelines.
Analysis
The key fact is that both companies are in the IPO pipeline, but the reported timing is not symmetrical. OpenAI has already confidentially filed and has been described as targeting anything from late 2026 to 2027, while multiple reports suggest Anthropic is considering an earlier window, including an October 2026 debut; that makes Anthropic the more plausible first mover if both execute on current plans. A confidential S-1 is only a preparatory step, so OpenAI’s filing alone does not guarantee it will beat Anthropic to market.
The main argument for Yes is that OpenAI has more visible IPO preparation, more underwriting depth, and repeated reporting that a debut could still land in late 2026, which would leave room for it to list before a delayed Anthropic process. However, the same reporting also indicates OpenAI leadership may prefer 2027 for readiness and valuation reasons, and that is exactly the sort of delay that would allow Anthropic to go first.
Against Yes, the strongest signal is the relative timing in the most recent coverage: Anthropic is the company being linked to the earlier public-market window, while OpenAI’s window has drifted later and remains explicitly unsettled. That does not make a No outcome certain, because either company could slip or accelerate, but it does make the current market’s 85% Yes price look rich relative to the evidence.
Compared with the market, I think this is modestly mispriced toward Yes. A 64% independent probability still favors OpenAI IPOing first, mainly because its process appears more mature and it has been in the market’s spotlight longer, but the gap between the companies’ reported windows is narrow enough that Anthropic’s earlier target deserves materially more weight than the market is giving it.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI has the clearer and more advanced IPO preparation, which increases the chance it can list before Anthropic if it chooses an aggressive timetable.
- Some reports still place OpenAI in late 2026, which would be early enough to beat an Anthropic process that slips.
Against
- Recent reporting more often points to Anthropic as the earlier candidate, including talk of an October 2026 window.
- OpenAI leadership has been linked to a 2027 preference, and that delay would likely give Anthropic the lead.
Key drivers
- OpenAI has already taken formal IPO steps, which improves its ability to move quickly if management chooses.
- Recent reporting places Anthropic’s potential debut earlier than OpenAI’s most common target window.
Risk factors
- Either company could delay for valuation, regulatory, or market-condition reasons, scrambling the current ordering.
- Confidential filings and media reports are not binding commitments, so the public timeline can shift materially.
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI accelerates its timeline, secures favorable market conditions, and lists in late 2026 before Anthropic can execute its reported plans.
Most likely
Both companies continue preparing, but Anthropic preserves the earlier target window and ends up listing first if the current reporting proves accurate.
Worst case
Anthropic completes a 2026 IPO first while OpenAI waits until 2027 or later because of valuation and readiness concerns.
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