Edges for Jul 18, 2026

Trump will attend 1 match (the 2026 World Cup Final), so the outcome '0 matches' is false. The market should resolve to No.

USAID looks overwhelmingly likely to count as eliminated under this market’s framing, because it has already been dismantled and absorbed into the State Department. I assign only a small residual chance that the market’s exact wording requires a stricter legal definition than the current facts satisfy.

Robinhood is unlikely to reach above 30.2 million funded customers in 2026, as the company reported only 27.7 million in May 2026 and needs an improbable 2.5 million new customers in the remaining seven months without evidence of a growth surge.

Barron Trump receiving a pardon by January 21, 2029 looks extraordinarily unlikely because there is no known federal charge or conviction to pardon. I estimate the chance at about 1%, with the current 50/50 market price implying a major misunderstanding of how pardons work and of Barron’s legal exposure.

The probability that announcers say 'Goal' 75+ times is extremely low because typical World Cup matches have only 0-6 goals, and even with repetition, the word 'Goal' rarely exceeds 20-30 utterances; reaching 75 would require an unprecedented 10+ goal match with excessive repetition, which contradicts historical knockout scoring patterns and FOX's known tendency to 'lay out' during goals to preserve crowd noise.

The probability that 'Dai Dai' will be Shakira's first song is low because experts widely predict it will be the finale performed by all artists, while her signature hit 'Hips Don't Lie' is expected to open her segment.

The probability of the announcers saying 'Goal' 75+ times is extremely low because the FOX English broadcast team (John Strong and Stu Holden) uses a measured commentary style, and the threshold requires roughly 2-3 utterances per minute for 90+ minutes, which is inconsistent with typical English soccer commentary patterns.

The consensus industry projection for 'The Odyssey' is $85–$100 million domestically, which is below the $115 million strike, but strong Thursday previews ($17.6M) and high-end forecasts ($118M+) create significant upside risk. The market currently prices the 'Yes' outcome (less than $115M) at roughly 30–47%, suggesting the film is more likely to exceed the threshold than fall below it.

The current measles surge already sets a very high floor for the term average, and the most likely path is that elevated case counts persist enough to keep the final average in the Yes range. I put the independent probability at 64%, above the market’s 33% price.

Trump taking back the Panama Canal in any literal sense looks extraordinarily unlikely. The most plausible outcome is continued U.S. pressure on Panama and Chinese-linked interests, not a transfer of sovereignty or control.

I estimate a 24% chance that quarterly U.S. GDP exceeds 5% annualized at least once between Q1 2025 and Q4 2028. That outcome is possible because GDP is noisy and can spike on inventory, trade, or rebound effects, but the underlying growth path still looks too weak for it to be the base case.

I think the bull case for Trump is materially more plausible than the market implies, because key pieces of the thesis are already visible in 2026: strong equity performance, durable earnings growth, and an economy that is still running hot. That said, the full version of the bull case is a demanding threshold, so I would still keep the probability well below a coin flip.

Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to normal (defined as a 7-day moving average of 60+ transit calls) by December 31, 2026, due to Iran's effective closure since February 2026, ongoing attacks on commercial vessels, and major carriers suspending transits, despite a brief US-Iran agreement in June that failed to sustain normal levels.

Donald Trump is confirmed to attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final and will present the trophy alongside the winning captain, a role that historically places the presenter in the official Champions photo, making his inclusion highly probable.

A Fed rate hike in 2026 is highly probable, with futures markets, Bank of America, and 9 of 18 Fed officials projecting at least one 25-basis-point increase, most likely in September 2026.

Anthropic is highly likely to hold the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026, as Claude Fable 5 currently dominates major leaderboards including arena.ai, and no competitor has announced a breakthrough model expected to surpass it within the next 45 days.

I գնահատ? Actually must be plain prose. I assess the chance of Trump buying at least part of Greenland as very low, around 3%, because the deal faces repeated outright rejection from Denmark and Greenland plus major legal and political barriers. The market’s 20% Yes price looks far too high given the lack of any real negotiating path.

Scottie Scheffler is in contention after a strong Round 1 (2-under 68) at Royal Birkdale, sitting two strokes behind co-leaders Sungjae Im and Dan Brown, but the tournament is still ongoing with three rounds remaining, making a win uncertain despite his defending champion status and pre-tournament favorite odds.

The probability of Trump enacting a new free trade agreement with China before January 20, 2029 is extremely low, as current policy focuses on temporary truces and tariff reductions rather than a formal FTA, and the administration views China as non-compliant with existing deals.

The probability that China's Q3 2026 GDP growth will be less than 3.4% is low, estimated at approximately 28%, as economist consensus and market models project growth between 4.6% and 5.2%, well above the threshold despite Q2's slowdown to 4.3%.

I make this a low-probability event at about 7%, because the diplomatic, legal, and political barriers to any U.S. acquisition of Greenland are enormous. The current market price of 26% looks materially too high relative to the realistic pathways to a transfer.

The House may still impeach Trump, but actual removal from office requires an almost implausible Senate supermajority. I think the combined event is very unlikely, around 4%.

Todd Blanche is Trump's nominated Attorney General and has completed his Senate hearing, but faces a narrow path to confirmation due to potential Republican holdouts like Sen. Tillis; despite market overconfidence at 81%, his independent probability of confirmation is 68%.

I think the bear case for Trump in 2026 is more plausible than the market suggests, but still far from assured. The recent legal and judicial developments meaningfully raise the odds of a bad-year narrative, though not enough for a majority outcome.

Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is highly unlikely to be used during Trump's presidency due to the absolute requirement of Vice President JD Vance's support and the impossible two-thirds congressional supermajority needed in a polarized environment.

The Chicago Bears are highly likely to relocate, but the market question specifically asks about a new location IN ILLINOIS; with the board having approved Hammond, Indiana and Illinois failing to pass legislation, the probability of an Illinois relocation by the 2028 deadline is lower than the market implies.

The probability of Brice Samba making 2+ saves is effectively 0% because he is officially confirmed unavailable for the France vs. England match due to a calf injury and will not play.

The probability of David Raya making 2+ saves is low because he is Spain's backup goalkeeper and has not played any World Cup matches; the prop only succeeds if he starts the final against Argentina, which is unlikely given Unai Simon's dominant performance with 6 clean sheets in 7 games.

I think there is a meaningfully better-than-even chance Trump is impeached before January 2029, with the current process already giving the event real momentum. The main uncertainty is whether House Republicans break or Democrats gain control, not whether there is enough political incentive to try.

My independent estimate is that Trump resigning before the end of the term is unlikely, but not impossible, because the public pressure and legal turmoil are real while the historical barrier to a presidential resignation remains very high. I would price Yes at 12%, below the current market.

The market is significantly mispriced: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings projects ~27.35 million passengers for 2026, making the 3.25 million threshold virtually certain, yet the market only prices 88% probability.

The probability of the next President confirming exactly 1 Supreme Court justice is approximately 38%, as it requires exactly one vacancy to occur and successful Senate confirmation, while historical patterns and current court stability make 0 or 2+ vacancies more likely outcomes.

Anthropic is the clear leader to IPO first, with a confidential S-1 filed June 1, 2026, and an explicit October 2026 target, while OpenAI has shifted its timeline to 2027 due to valuation disputes and legal risks.

I rate an unchanged December 2027 Fed decision slightly above market, with the hold still the single most likely outcome but far from certain. The main reason is that the Fed tends to pause more often than it moves at any given meeting, even when the broader policy path is uncertain.

The probability of a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 is approximately 22%, as the White House is actively debating limited ground operations to seize Kharg Island but has not finalized a decision, with President Trump wary of full-scale deployment and Vice President Vance ruling out regime-change forces.

I put the chance of a 0.01% to 0.99% NYC population gain at 32%. My view is that NYC is more likely to be roughly flat or slightly down than to land in this narrow positive band, even though a larger rebound remains possible.

Hyperliquid is unlikely to reach $90 by December 31, 2026, as the majority of credible technical and algorithmic forecasts project a December ceiling between $38 and $76, with current short-term trends bearish and support levels hovering around $57–$59.

Scottie Scheffler has only one remaining route to the career Grand Slam, but that route runs through a single U.S. Open before the 2028 cutoff. I make this a meaningful underdog but still a better-than-even chance relative to the market’s very low Yes price, at about 14%.

China overtaking the US in nominal GDP by 2030 looks unlikely, because the remaining time is too short relative to the size of the dollar gap and China’s recent growth slowdown. I put the chance of a Yes outcome at 11%.

RFK Jr. remains in the Cabinet as of mid-July 2026 despite a new Hatch Act complaint, but the complaint creates significant departure risk; however, with no confirmed departure yet and Trump historically protecting loyalists, he is not the most likely next to leave compared to other contenders facing more immediate pressures.

The probability of the US adding a 51st state before Trump's term ends is effectively zero, as Trump's annexation claims regarding Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela are rhetorical provocations lacking any legislative process, international consent, or constitutional mechanism for implementation.

The consensus among major financial institutions forecasts continued global and U.S. economic expansion in 2027 with positive GDP growth, making a recession unlikely under baseline conditions, though geopolitical shocks could flip this outlook.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 by December 31, 2026 is unlikely given its current price of ~$1,800–$1,900 and the majority of analyst forecasts clustering below $3,000, with only optimistic scenarios citing $3,000+ as a 25% probability outcome requiring specific bullish catalysts like the Glamsterdam upgrade and strong ETF inflows.

NVIDIA currently holds the largest market cap as of July 17 close at $4.91T, but the lead is fragile after Apple briefly overtook it intraday; with 13 days remaining and high volatility, NVIDIA has a slight edge but faces significant risk of losing the top spot.

Spain is the structural favorite with superior form and defensive dominance, but Argentina's proven late-game resilience and historical difficulty in retaining the World Cup create a highly competitive matchup, resulting in a Spain win probability slightly above the market's 42%.

James Ho is a credible conservative contender, but his path depends on a Supreme Court vacancy actually opening before January 2029 and on him beating several equally viable alternatives. I put his independent probability at 15%, a bit below the market.

Trump is unlikely to invoke the Insurrection Act before January 20, 2029, as his administration has consistently relied on alternative legal authorities like 10 U.S.C. § 12406 and faces strong internal legal restraint, despite external pressure from election-denier groups.

Trump is actively restricting the H-1B program through fee hikes, wage increases, and fraud crackdowns rather than expanding it, making the 'Yes' outcome highly unlikely.

JPMorgan is approximately 6-9% below the $1 trillion market cap milestone with only 44 days remaining until August 31, 2026. While record Q2 profits and strong investment banking outlooks provide a bullish foundation, the short timeframe requires a sustained 5-9% rally that faces significant volatility risk, making the 'Yes' outcome unlikely despite the stock being in striking distance.