Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
RFK Jr. remains in the Cabinet as of mid-July 2026 despite a new Hatch Act complaint, but the complaint creates significant departure risk; however, with no confirmed departure yet and Trump historically protecting loyalists, he is not the most likely next to leave compared to other contenders facing more immediate pressures.
Analysis
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is still serving as HHS Secretary as of July 18, 2026, with no public resignation or firing announcement. The July 14 Hatch Act complaint filed by Sen. Ron Wyden represents a new, high-visibility legal and political challenge, but investigations under the Hatch Act often take months and rarely result in immediate Cabinet removal unless Trump chooses to act decisively. Trump’s historical pattern shows strong protection of loyal Cabinet members even amid controversy, which reduces the likelihood of RFK Jr. being the next departure solely due to this complaint.
Comparing RFK Jr. to other contenders, Pete Hegseth (12% market) faces more direct and immediate pressure due to ongoing scrutiny over his Pentagon leadership and potential ethics concerns, making him a more probable next departure. Howard Lutnick, Susie Wiles, and Brooke Rollins have less visible public controversies as of now, but Hegseth’s situation appears more volatile. The market’s 38% probability for RFK Jr. likely overweights the Hatch Act complaint’s immediate impact without accounting for Trump’s protective tendencies and the slow pace of Hatch Act enforcement.
The event spans until January 2029, allowing time for multiple Cabinet changes. RFK Jr. could still leave, but the timing and likelihood depend on whether the Hatch Act investigation escalates to a point where Trump feels compelled to act. Given the lack of confirmed departure and Trump’s loyalty to Cabinet members, RFK Jr. is less likely than Hegseth to be the next to leave, suggesting the market misprices RFK Jr. too high relative to other contenders.
Arguments
For
- New Hatch Act complaint creates immediate legal and political pressure for RFK Jr. to leave
- RFK Jr. has faced intense scrutiny from Democrats since nomination, increasing vulnerability
- If Trump decides the complaint is too damaging, he may remove RFK Jr. to avoid broader fallout
- RFK Jr. is the top market contender, indicating significant perceived risk
Against
- No confirmed departure or firing of RFK Jr. as of July 18, 2026
- Trump historically protects loyal Cabinet members even amid controversy
- Hatch Act investigations typically take months and rarely result in immediate removal
- Pete Hegseth faces more immediate and visible pressure, making him more likely to leave next
Key drivers
- Outcome and speed of Hatch Act investigation into RFK Jr.
- Trump’s historical tendency to protect loyal Cabinet members amid controversy
- Relative pressure levels on other contenders like Pete Hegseth
- Timeline of Cabinet turnover through January 2029
Risk factors
- Hatch Act investigation could escalate faster than expected, forcing RFK Jr. out
- Trump may unexpectedly fire RFK Jr. despite loyalty pattern
- Other contenders’ controversies could resolve without departure, making RFK Jr. more likely
- Political pressure from Congress could intensify beyond Hatch Act complaint
Scenarios
Best case
Hatch Act investigation concludes with no violation or minor penalty, RFK Jr. remains in Cabinet for the rest of Trump’s term, and another contender like Hegseth leaves first.
Most likely
Hatch Act investigation proceeds slowly with no immediate removal; RFK Jr. stays in Cabinet while Pete Hegseth leaves first due to more pressing controversies, making RFK Jr. not the next to depart.
Worst case
Hatch Act investigation finds clear violation, Trump fires RFK Jr. within weeks, and he becomes the next Cabinet departure.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 32% | 38% |
| Pete Hegseth | 28% | 12% |
| Howard Lutnick | 15% | 9% |
| Susie Wiles | 12% | 9% |
| Brooke Rollins | 13% | 8% |
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