Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

Trump is already in active impeachment proceedings, which materially changes the baseline. Once articles are filed and hearings are scheduled, the event is no longer a speculative tail risk but a live legislative contest, and there are multiple paths to a House vote over the next 2.5 years. The key question is not whether there are grounds for impeachment, but whether the House can assemble 218 votes. Given that Democrats currently hold 212 seats and need only six Republicans, the hurdle is difficult but not extraordinary if the political environment deteriorates further or if additional damaging evidence emerges.

The most important reason to favor Yes is that the window is long. Even if the current Congress does not act, the 2026 midterms and the possibility of a 2028 election-year or lame-duck impeachment create additional opportunities. A narrow GOP majority, defections driven by scandal fatigue, or a Democratic House takeover would make impeachment substantially more likely than it is today. Historically, once impeachment becomes a live partisan weapon, it tends to stay available as an option whenever control of the chamber or elite Republican tolerance shifts.

The strongest reason to resist overconfidence is that House impeachment is still a political act requiring a meaningful number of Republicans to cross a very high-trust barrier. Many GOP members may dislike Trump privately but still see impeachment as too costly, especially if they believe the Senate will not convict. That said, conviction is not required for this market, and markets often underweight the difference between impeachment and removal. I would price this above the current market because 60% looks like it is anchoring to the unlikelihood of conviction, while the actual event can happen with a much lower threshold and now has active institutional momentum behind it.