PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner

Scottie Scheffler is firmly in contention at the 2026 The Open Championship after shooting a 2-under 68 in Round 1 at Royal Birkdale, positioning him two strokes behind co-leaders Sungjae Im and Dan Brown who are at 4-under. His early momentum was impressive, with four birdies in his first six holes briefly putting him in the outright lead before a bogey on the 7th, and he remains tied for 10th place as the tournament continues through July 19. While Scheffler is the defending champion from 2025 and entered as the +750 favorite to repeat, the tournament is still in its early stages with three rounds remaining, meaning his current position does not guarantee victory.

Scheffler's recent form shows resilience after his first missed cut in nearly four years at the Genesis Scottish Open, and this Round 1 performance suggests he has shaken off that poor form. He is attempting to become the first player since Padraig Harrington (2008) to successfully defend The Open title, a historically difficult feat that adds pressure to his campaign. Playing alongside Bryson DeChambeau (3-under 67) and Tyrrell Hatton, Scheffler demonstrated strong shot-making, including a 43-foot birdie putt on the difficult 6th hole, but faces a leaderboard where multiple players are under par and the competition remains tight.

The market-implied probability of 13.5% for Scheffler winning reflects the uncertainty of an ongoing tournament where he is not yet in the lead. Historical data shows that defending champions face significant challenges, with Scheffler needing to improve his score relative to Im and Brown while maintaining consistency over Rounds 2, 3, and 4. The tournament's resolution depends on his ability to close out the event, and while his skill level as world No. 1 makes him a credible contender, the current two-stroke deficit and the presence of multiple under-par competitors create substantial risk for a win outcome.