Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

There is no current vacancy, so the entire bet rests on whether a seat opens before January 2029. That keeps the probability meaningfully below a simple “who is most prominent among conservative judges” read, because even highly plausible nominees cannot become the next justice unless a sitting justice retires, dies, or resigns in time.

If a vacancy does appear during the current political window, James Ho is absolutely in the conversation. He is a high-profile Fifth Circuit judge with strong originalist credentials and a profile that fits the Trump-era conservative legal pipeline, but he is not obviously the first choice over peers who may offer better confirmability, closer White House relationships, or a more conventional institutional reputation. Andrew Oldham and D. John Sauer look especially competitive, while Aileen Cannon and Amul Thapar each have different strengths but also clear drawbacks.

The market at 19% is somewhat aggressive for Ho because it seems to price him as the default conservative successor, when in reality the field is broad and the vacancy itself is uncertain. I would treat Ho as a real contender but not the modal outcome, with the bigger probability sitting in the combination of no vacancy or another nominee being selected if one does open.