Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028?
Scottie Scheffler has only one remaining route to the career Grand Slam, but that route runs through a single U.S. Open before the 2028 cutoff. I make this a meaningful underdog but still a better-than-even chance relative to the market’s very low Yes price, at about 14%.
Analysis
Scheffler’s case is straightforward: he already owns three legs of the career Grand Slam and needs only the U.S. Open to complete it, with the 2027 U.S. Open effectively his last shot before the deadline. That is a narrow path, but not a remote one for a player who remains World No. 1, has consistently contended in majors, and has already shown he can win on the toughest stages. Even with some recent volatility, his baseline major-winning ability is far above that of the field, and the U.S. Open is the kind of event where elite tee-to-green dominance can translate directly into victory.
The main reason to keep the probability from getting too high is that this market is a single-event outcome disguised by a long horizon. He only gets one realistic attempt, and the U.S. Open is the most variance-heavy of the majors, often rewarding a narrow set of conditions, course fit, and putting weeks that can easily break against even the best player. A one-shot chance against an entire elite field means the true probability should still be well below 50%, and his recent stretch of fewer wins and one missed cut adds some caution.
Against the current market price of 7%, my estimate is materially higher. A seven percent price implies something closer to an outside chance for Scheffler to win one U.S. Open in the next cycle, which seems too pessimistic for a player of his caliber and consistency. The market may be over-weighting the scarcity of remaining opportunities and under-weighting just how often Scheffler converts major contention into wins; I think fair value is closer to the mid-teens than to the high single digits.
Arguments
For
- He is still playing at a level that makes him a regular favorite or co-favorite in major championships.
- Three completed legs of the Grand Slam suggest he is not merely talented enough to contend, but capable of closing on golf's biggest stages.
Against
- He must win a very difficult championship in a single remaining attempt, which is inherently low probability.
- Recent results show some weakness relative to his peak, including fewer wins and at least one missed cut.
Key drivers
- Scheffler is already one major away from the career Grand Slam, so only one win is needed before the deadline.
- His elite baseline in major championships makes him one of the few players with a genuinely plausible shot in any given U.S. Open.
Risk factors
- He has only one remaining opportunity, so bad luck, course fit, or a poor week eliminates the event entirely.
- The U.S. Open’s setup and volatility make even the best player a relatively modest favorite over the field.
Scenarios
Best case
Scheffler arrives at the 2027 U.S. Open in top form, gains a favorable setup, and wins the only remaining major he needs, completing the career Grand Slam before 2028.
Most likely
Scheffler stays among the top contenders and has a real chance, but the difficulty and randomness of a single U.S. Open leave him more likely than not to fall short.
Worst case
He remains excellent but does not capture the 2027 U.S. Open, and the market resolves No when the deadline passes without the missing major.
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