How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?
The probability of the next President confirming exactly 1 Supreme Court justice is approximately 38%, as it requires exactly one vacancy to occur and successful Senate confirmation, while historical patterns and current court stability make 0 or 2+ vacancies more likely outcomes.
Analysis
The market currently prices the '1 Justice' outcome at 48%, but this appears overvalued given the fundamental uncertainty of whether any vacancy will occur during the 2025-2029 term. As of March 2026, there are zero vacancies on the U.S. Supreme Court, with all 9 justices serving. The probability of exactly one justice retiring, dying, or being removed in the next 2.5+ years is modest, and even if one vacancy occurs, political gridlock could prevent confirmation, resulting in 0 justices. Historical data shows Presidents confirm 0-3+ justices depending entirely on vacancies, with Trump confirming 3 due to 3 vacancies. The market may be mispricing this event by overweighting the likelihood of a single vacancy while underweighting the probabilities of zero vacancies (leading to 0 confirmations) or multiple vacancies (leading to 2+ confirmations). The 24% market probability for 0 justices and 31% for 2 justices suggest the market recognizes these alternatives are competitive, yet still assigns the highest probability to exactly 1, which lacks strong empirical support.
Arguments
For
- A single vacancy is plausible given the age of some justices, particularly Clarence Thomas with 34+ years of tenure
- If one vacancy occurs and the President has Senate support, exactly 1 confirmation is the natural outcome
- Historical patterns show single-vacancy terms result in single confirmations when political conditions allow
Against
- Zero vacancies are equally or more likely given current court stability with 0 vacancies as of March 2026
- Multiple vacancies could occur, leading to 2+ confirmations and making '1' incorrect
- Senate opposition could block confirmation even with a vacancy, resulting in 0 justices confirmed
- The market's 48% probability for '1' ignores that 0 and 2 outcomes collectively have 55% market probability
Key drivers
- Whether exactly one Supreme Court vacancy occurs during the 2025-2029 term
- Senate political dynamics and ability to confirm a nominee if a vacancy occurs
- Age and health of current justices, particularly longest-serving Clarence Thomas (34+ years tenure)
- Historical precedent of multiple vacancies leading to multiple confirmations
Risk factors
- No vacancy occurs, resulting in 0 justices confirmed
- Two or more vacancies occur, resulting in 2+ justices confirmed
- Senate gridlock blocks confirmation even if a vacancy occurs
- Unexpected events (death, removal) creating multiple vacancies simultaneously
Scenarios
Best case
Exactly one justice retires or leaves office during the term, the President nominates a qualified candidate, and the Senate confirms them without gridlock, resulting in exactly 1 justice confirmed.
Most likely
Either no vacancy occurs (0 confirmations) or multiple vacancies occur (2+ confirmations), as historical data shows Presidents often confirm 0-3+ justices depending on vacancies, making exactly 1 less probable than the market suggests.
Worst case
No vacancies occur during the entire term, or two+ justices leave office but Senate gridlock prevents any confirmation, resulting in 0 justices confirmed, or multiple vacancies lead to 2+ confirmations.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% | 48% |
| 2 | 32% | 31% |
| 0 | 25% | 24% |
| 3 | 4% | 5% |
| 4 | 1% | 2% |
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