Edges for Jul 12, 2026

**Very likely Yes.** A sitting Cabinet member (Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte) is already being tried in the Senate impeachment court, which in the Philippines follows a House impeachment — so the factual threshold for “impeached” has effectively been met and the probability of at least one Cabinet member being impeached before 2027 is extremely high.

I think claude-opus-4-6-thinking is a clear underdog here. It is currently near the top of the leaderboard, but it is not the leader today, and the latest frontier releases make it more likely to stay around second or third than to reclaim first.

Based on reported mid-2026 metrics and required growth rates, I assess a low probability that Robinhood will report above 30.2M funded customers in 2026 — roughly a 12% chance.

Independent assessment: USAID has been effectively eliminated during Trump's term; given the documented functional dismantling and transfer to State, I assign a high probability that the market resolves 'Yes' (absent a narrow legal-definition clause).

Independent view: a December 8, 2027 25bp hike is unlikely — I put the probability at 15% because FOMC projections and market forward curves point to easing through 2027 unless a material upside shock occurs.

I think No is far more likely than the market price suggests. The current outbreak environment is active but not close to a new global pandemic, and the remaining time is short enough that the yes case needs an unlikely shock.

Independent assessment: it's highly unlikely the Chicago pro football team will relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 regular season; the Bears have selected Hammond, Indiana and are already advancing site work, so I place the Illinois relocation probability very low.

I assess a very low chance (6%) that any US quarterly GDP reading will exceed 5% in Q1 2025–Q4 2028: the recent growth trajectory, outside-of-cycle drivers required for a 5% quarter, and official forecasts make a boom highly unlikely.

I assess a 72% independent probability that the average annual number of US measles cases across 2025–2028 will meet or exceed ~3,000 per year (i.e., the 'Yes' outcome). This reflects the strong acceleration in 2026, weak policy response, and high-risk pockets that make a sustained multi-year elevated average more likely than not.

I assess a low probability that Barron Trump will be granted a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029 — the president can issue preemptive pardons, but political cost and lack of any federal exposure for Barron make this unlikely.

I judge a substantial, but not dominant, chance that the bear-case narrative for Trump fully crystallizes in 2026 — I put the independent probability at 45%. The macroeconomic, crypto/asset, and geopolitical pressures make a bad-year outcome plausible, but strong political insulation and several offsetting paths reduce the odds below coin-flip parity.

I assess a ~45% chance Todd Blanche becomes Trump's permanent Attorney General — he has the strongest structural advantages (acting status, DOJ background, expedience for confirmation) but faces meaningful political competition from Lee Zeldin and strategic incentives for Trump to pick a higher-profile political ally.

Extremely unlikely — I assess roughly a 1% chance that President Trump will "take back" the Panama Canal during his next term; the action is effectively precluded by legal, diplomatic, and military-political constraints, though tiny tail scenarios remain.

**Independent assessment:** Given the House is on the floor debating and a vote is scheduled today, I assess a high probability that the House will pass articles of impeachment — this is the event’s decisive trigger — so the independent probability of

Jay Clayton is the clear favorite given his formal nomination and impending (though delayed) hearing, but political maneuvering and Trump's conditional delay reduce certainty — I assess his chances at 75%.

The market still looks somewhat too optimistic. Recent traffic recovery has stalled amid renewed attacks, and PortWatch remains far below the 60-call threshold, so I put Yes below the current price.

I assess a very low independent probability (4%) that the United States will acquire any part of Greenland before 2029; the legal, political, and military barriers make a voluntary or forcible transfer highly unlikely, though remote edge cases keep the probability above zero.

I assess a roughly one-in-four chance (24%) that a pronounced, politically useful 2026 stock-market 'bull case' for Trump materializes — i.e., a sizable market rally that he successfully frames as his economic vindication despite weak approval.

Extremely unlikely — I assign ~1% probability that Donald Trump will 'buy' any part of Greenland during his term; legal, political, and practical barriers make a sovereignty sale effectively impossible, though tiny tail risks (odd legal or political change, or reinterpretation of the question as private land/mineral purchases) keep the probability above zero.

I estimate a 31% chance that Ethereum reaches $3,000 by December 31, 2026. The market’s 15% implied probability looks too low given the recent ETF inflow rebound and Ethereum’s improving roadmap story, but the target still requires a large, sustained rally from current levels.

I think No is somewhat more likely than Yes. The diplomatic channel is still alive, but the recent escalation makes a formal, mutual public extension before August 20, 2026 less likely than the market implies.

2026 looks highly likely to be another exceptionally warm year, but the evidence still points more toward a top-five finish than a new all-time record. I think the market is overstating the odds that the late-year El Niño boost is enough to beat 2024.

I assess a low chance that Section IV will be used against President Trump during his term — roughly a 12% probability — because the constitutional, political, and practical hurdles are very high and the current activity is mostly rhetoric and procedural bills, not an operational invocation.

Linda Cardellini is a live contender, but not a safe favorite. DTF St. Louis gave her a strong platform, yet the category is crowded with veteran alternatives, so I rate her slightly below a coin flip.

NVIDIA is still the most likely company to sit at the top of the market-cap table on July 31, but the gap to Apple is not enormous and Apple's July 30 earnings create a real, if still minority, chance that NVDA ends the month at second place.

Spain are a genuine title contender after reaching the semifinals, but they still need to beat France and then one more elite opponent. I make Spain roughly a one-in-three shot to win the tournament, above the current market price but still clearly short of favorite status.

I lean No, with United Russia at about 42% to gain the most seats. It is still the dominant party and looks well positioned to control the next Duma, but the seat-gain framing gives smaller challengers, especially New People, more room to outperform it.

Google is the current leader on the relevant Arena math leaderboard, but the margin is thin and several major competitors are close enough to overtake it before month-end. I give Google a modest edge over a coin flip, slightly above the market price, because it starts from first place and still has room for a late July Gemini update.

I make no Fed rate cuts in 2026 a strong favorite at about 89%, because the Fed’s own projections and the latest inflation data point more toward hold-or-hike than easing. The main way this loses is if inflation cools quickly and the labor market weakens materially over the next few reports.

I think the market is mispriced on the low side: Elon Musk is more likely than not to stay under 40 counted posts in this 48-hour window, and I would put the Yes chance in the mid-80s.

I assess a low probability that President Trump will voluntarily resign before his term ends — roughly a 10% chance — because current behavior, incentives, and institutional constraints all favor him staying in office absent a dramatic, rapid collapse or sudden incapacity.

I estimate a low chance of a true U.S. invasion of Iran before the end of 2026. The recent escalation makes the risk non-zero, but the gap between airstrikes and a ground offensive intended to establish territorial control is still very large.

I assess a very high probability that there will be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term (≈93%), given constitutional, diplomatic, and political barriers; a small tail risk remains from unlikely pathways such as Greenlandic independence followed by a sale or an extraordinary coercive deal.

I think a Tesla-SpaceX merger or acquisition announcement by December 31 is still more unlikely than likely, despite the rumor premium in the market. Recent coverage has been driven mainly by analyst speculation, while the latest official company updates still point to separate operations and financing.

Independent assessment: a low but non-negligible chance (~10%) that Trump will be both impeached by the House and removed by the Senate before his term ends — impeachment is plausible politically, but Senate conviction/removal is unlikely without extraordinary, bipartisan-turning evidence or catastrophe.

I assess a roughly one-in-three chance that President Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act by Jan 1, 2027 — plausible given low statutory triggers and a DOJ unlikely to block him, but constrained by high political, legal, and institutional costs.

Anthropic is still on a fast Opus cadence, so a new Opus by August 31 looks more likely than not, but the market’s 86.5% Yes price seems a bit too high given the absence of any official Opus teaser in the last week. Official docs still show Opus 4.8 as the current public Opus model.

Marine Le Pen looks more viable in 2027 than the market price implies, because she is now cleared to run and recent polling has her leading the field and even shown her winning some tested runoff matchups. Still, the combination of legal uncertainty, anti-Le Pen runoff dynamics, and the long runway to April 2027 keeps this well below a clear majority chance.

I assess an extremely low independent probability that the U.S. will acquire any Canadian territory by 2029 — roughly 2% — because there is no credible legal, political, or military pathway and Canada and allies are taking clear steps to defend sovereignty.

I think a July rate cut is possible but still not the most likely outcome, so I price the Yes side at 32%. The Bank of Russia remains in an easing cycle, but the latest inflation and fuel data make a pause slightly more likely than another cut.

I assess a meaningful but not overwhelming chance that Justice Samuel Alito will resign during Trump's 2025–2029 term; my independent probability is 60%, reflecting age/strategic incentives but balanced by his recent activity and absence of confirmed plans.

I estimate a 22% chance that total federal government spending will be lower by at least $250 billion before 2028 (i.e., by the end of 2027); meaningful but unlikely given structural drivers of federal outlays and political constraints.

Sinner remains the right favorite, but Zverev’s first Wimbledon final and the inherent volatility of a grass-court championship match keep this from being close to certain. I make Sinner about 84% to win.

Scheffler still has one clear path to the career Grand Slam before 2028 (the 2027 U.S. Open); given his long-term class but recent wobble, I assess about a 12% chance he'll win that U.S. Open and complete the Grand Slam before 2028.

I think OpenAI is meaningfully more likely than not to announce some consumer hardware-related product this year, but an announcement specifically framed as earbuds or headphones still looks below the current market price. My estimate is 24% yes, because the public evidence points to broad hardware ambition and voice-first product work, not to an audio-wearable launch specifically.

**Independent assessment:** I assign a 72% probability that OpenAI will IPO before Anthropic (i.e., OpenAI is the first of the two to complete a public listing before 2040).

I rate a July 7-13 Bitcoin sale announcement by Strategy as unlikely, but not impossible. The company’s recent official updates still center on reserve management and capital structure, and I do not see an official sale announcement in the relevant window so far.

I assess a low probability that Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin will meet face-to-face before 1 January 2027 — roughly 12% — because there are strong strategic and political disincentives on both sides and only a short window for a breakthrough.

Enola Holmes 3 has enough momentum to stay near the top, but an exact #2 finish looks only modestly likely because the week has thin competition and the movie could just as easily hold #1 or slip below #2.

I slightly lean Yes at 55%, which is below the market's roughly 60% pricing. The Fed's June projections and minutes show a real internal split toward at least one hike, but softer labor data and the opportunity to wait for more inflation evidence keep this from being a high-conviction Yes.

France is a live but slight underdog against Spain, and I rate a 47% chance that Les Bleus win on July 14. The market is a bit too pessimistic on France because Mbappe and Dembele are in form and France gets a small rest advantage, but Spain’s recent head-to-head edge keeps this close.

Farage is a very heavy favorite to win the Clacton by-election, and I rate his chances higher than the current 92.4% market price because the main parties are sitting out and he remains the dominant local figure.

I assess a 42% chance the 2025–2029 President will confirm exactly one Supreme Court justice. One vacancy in a four-year term is the single most likely outcome given historical rates and the current demographics of the Court, but there is a meaningful chance of 0 or 2 confirmations.

I think a qualifying new Mythos-class public release by July 31 is unlikely, because Anthropic’s latest activity is focused on restoring and explaining Fable 5 rather than introducing a new model. The market’s 10.5% Yes price looks a bit rich to me, so I’m below that at 7%.

I think the market is slightly too optimistic. OpenSea still looks capable of launching a token by year-end, and a $500M FDV is not a high bar for a major crypto brand, but the repeated delay and lack of a firm launch date make the combined Yes outcome only moderately likely.

Rockstar and Take-Two are currently acting like a launch that is locked in, with pre-orders live, preload timing set, and both Sony and Take-Two publicly tied to November 19, 2026. The market’s 9.5% Yes price looks a bit low to me, but only modestly so because Rockstar’s history still leaves some residual delay risk.

I rate Yes at 97%, slightly above the current market, because Reuters and FIFA have already reported that Trump will attend the final and help present the trophy. The remaining downside is mostly last-minute disruption rather than genuine doubt about intent.

I assess a low probability that Trump will expand high‑skill immigration during his term: he is far more likely to tighten H‑1B and other high‑skill pathways given current regulatory signals and political incentives.

I assess a low probability that any company will credibly announce achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01 — about 10% — because the technical, verification, and reputational hurdles remain large despite rapid progress and strong incentives to claim otherwise.

I put the chance of a Chinese company reaching the top 3 on the Arena text leaderboard by year-end at 16%. Chinese labs are improving quickly, but the current top tier is still dominated by Anthropic and the best Chinese model is still well outside the top 3.