Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation

**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore market prices):**

Based strictly on the public facts, the Bears have formally selected Hammond, Indiana (announcement June 9, 2026), have initiated geotechnical surveys on the Hammond site, and Indiana enacted enabling measures and incentives to accelerate development. The project is described as a $5 billion stadium and entertainment district with the team projecting play to begin in 2028. Those are concrete, irreversible planning steps: site selection, state legislative support, engineering/geotechnical work and public statements of timeline. Building a new stadium and relocating a franchise is a complex, capital- and time-intensive process; given Hammond is the chosen site and work has already begun, the realistic pathway to a *new location in Illinois* by the start of the 2028 season requires a major unforced reversal (Indiana project collapse, litigation or financing failure, and Illinois producing a superior offer and fast-tracking approvals and construction) within roughly 26 months. That combination is unlikely.

I therefore assign a low independent probability (4%) that the team will relocate to a new Illinois location by the first game of 2028. This 4% reflects small but nonzero possibilities: a catastrophic failure of the Hammond plan (legal injunction, funding withdrawal, environmental showstopper), a late buy-in from Illinois leaders with unprecedented speed/financing agreements, or an NFL-driven change of plan that forces reconsideration. Each of those is plausible in isolation but together are low-probability given current evidence.

**Stage 2 — Market calibration (compare to prices):**

The market currently places ~49% on *A new location in Illinois* and ~44% on *Indiana*. My independent 4% probability sharply disagrees with the market. Possible reasons the market is pricing Illinois so high despite the Hammond selection:

- *Ambiguity or confusion by traders:* Some participants may be conflating prior Arlington Heights reporting or treating the question as "will the franchise announce some Illinois-centric relocation plan" rather than the literal physical move by first game 2028. The news trajectory (years of Arlington Heights discussion) leaves cognitive residue that can persist in markets. - *Speculative / event-driven trading and hedging:* High volume suggests many professional or hedging players; some may be speculating on a late Illinois rescue (political turnaround) and are willing to pay up for a long-shot high payoff. Others may be trading correlated outcomes or using the contract as a proxy hedge for other positions, inflating Illinois demand. - *Timing and technicalities:* Traders might assume "relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of 2028" could be satisfied by a temporary arrangement or an announced relocation without the new Illinois stadium being fully operational. If market participants interpret the contract loosely (e.g., relocation announcement vs actual operations), that inflates probability for Illinois.

Given the publicly documented Hammond selection, geotechnical work and legislative backing, the market appears materially mispriced toward Illinois. If you believe the news that Hammond is the site and that construction will proceed, the market offers a strong arbitrage: selling Illinois exposure (or buying Indiana) appears sensible. However, watch for late-breaking political deals, legal developments, or ambiguous contract adjudication that could justify some premium for Illinois.

(Separately: the "Do not relocate or announce a relocation" and "Iowa" buckets are both small in market terms; my independent view assigns them minor probabilities because the Hammond site selection reduces the chance of no relocation or an Iowa move.)