Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Recent polling still gives United Russia the lead, but not an overwhelming one: WCIOM's 5 July ratings put it at 34.6%, with New People at 11.5%, LDPR at 10.4%, CPRF at 10.3%, and A Just Russia at 5.4%. WCIOM's 2 July election review says awareness of the vote and declared turnout are rising, and it explicitly says the main contest is now the fight for second place, which suggests the party system is settling into a familiar fragmented pattern rather than a broad anti-incumbent surge. New People also appears to have edged ahead of the Communists in popularity, which matters because any incremental seat gains are more likely to be distributed among the smaller parties than to dramatically change United Russia's already dominant position.

The key wrinkle for this market is that it is about seat gains, not seat totals. United Russia already holds 321 of 450 Duma seats, and the election will be run under the usual mixed system of 225 single-member districts and 225 list seats, so the ruling party starts from a much higher base than any challenger. In practice, that means United Russia can still win the election while being outgained by a smaller party, because a party such as New People can add more seats from a lower starting point if it keeps consolidating voters who want an alternative but do not want to vote outright opposition. That is exactly what happened in 2021, when United Russia remained dominant but lost 19 seats, while the Communists, A Just Russia, and New People all gained seats.

There are still meaningful pro-United Russia forces. The party has launched a highly visible campaign slate featuring senior Kremlin figures, a war veteran, and a war correspondent, and Reuters reported that despite war, fuel shortages, and weaker polling, the party is still likely to secure a large majority thanks to Putin's support and a tame parliamentary opposition. The new constituency map and broader use of electronic voting also create structural advantages for the ruling party. My inference, however, is that those advantages are more likely to preserve United Russia's dominance than to guarantee it posts the single biggest seat gain, because the most room for growth still appears to be with New People or, to a lesser extent, the Communists.