Elon Musk # tweets July 11 - July 13, 2026?

The best recent read on Musk’s posting pace points to a relatively manageable volume entering the market window. One official XTracker snapshot shows his current July 7-14 tracking period at 5 total posts, while another XTracker snapshot shows 21 posts in the June 30-July 7 period; even allowing for snapshot timing quirks, those figures imply a pace far below the more than 20 posts per day needed to get above 40 in a two-day window. A separate seven-day count site reported 104 posts from July 2-9, which still works out to roughly 15 posts per day and leaves meaningful room under the 40-post cutoff.

The news backdrop is active enough to create bursts, so the risk of a sudden spike is real. On July 1, Musk denied a Reuters-reported Wall Street Journal story about SpaceX, the Guardian documented a heavy stretch of UK race-and-immigration posting on July 4, and CNBC’s planned interview with him was canceled on July 10 as SpaceX weakened. That mix of business, politics, and media controversy is exactly the sort of environment where Musk can abruptly accelerate his posting rate.

Even so, the threshold is high enough that I still favor Yes decisively. To lose the under-40 bet, Musk would need to sustain an unusually intense posting burst across both days, not just a single noisy thread, and the recent observed pace does not suggest that kind of sustained frenzy. The market’s 23.5% Yes price looks too low relative to the recent tracker evidence, so my independent estimate is that under 40 is the more likely outcome by a wide margin.