Edges for Jul 13, 2026

I assess a 72% independent probability that the average annual number of US measles cases across 2025–2028 will meet or exceed ~3,000 per year (i.e., the 'Yes' outcome). This reflects the strong acceleration in 2026, weak policy response, and high-risk pockets that make a sustained multi-year elevated average more likely than not.

I think the chance of another pandemic before GTA VI is materially below the current market price. The most likely outcome is that today’s outbreaks remain serious but contained, with no event reaching true pandemic status before November 19, 2026.

Independent assessment: very unlikely — I assign an 8% chance that any U.S. quarterly real GDP (annualized) will exceed 5% in Q1 2025–Q4 2028. The data and policy environment point strongly against a sustained or one‑off 5%+ quarter, though low‑probability shocks could still produce a spike.

Google is the current leader on the relevant Arena math leaderboard, but the margin is thin and several major competitors are close enough to overtake it before month-end. I give Google a modest edge over a coin flip, slightly above the market price, because it starts from first place and still has room for a late July Gemini update.

I assess a low independent probability (8%) that Barron Trump will be granted a presidential pardon by Jan 21, 2029 — the most plausible path would be a future federal charge or a rare pre‑emptive pardon, both of which are unlikely based on current facts.

I assess a very low probability that President Trump will succeed in "taking back" the Panama Canal during his term; political, legal, diplomatic, and practical barriers make successful reclamation extremely unlikely.

I assess a ~45% chance Todd Blanche becomes Trump's permanent Attorney General — he has the strongest structural advantages (acting status, DOJ background, expedience for confirmation) but faces meaningful political competition from Lee Zeldin and strategic incentives for Trump to pick a higher-profile political ally.

I assess a **35%** chance the 'bear case' for Trump materializes in 2026 — a meaningful but not dominant risk driven by legal escalations and high-profile policy/ spending controversies that could meaningfully erode his standing among swing voters and weaken Republican performance in 2026.

Scottie Scheffler has two realistic U.S. Open opportunities (2026 and 2027) before the 2028 cutoff; given his elite form, age, and market odds, I assess a substantially higher chance than the market—around 30%—that he completes the career Grand Slam before 2028.

Independent view: a December 8, 2027 25bp hike is plausible but not the most likely single-meeting outcome — I assess ~48% probability that the FOMC will deliver a 25bp hike that day.

Ashley Trail is still a long shot to leave in Week 1. She has appeared in renom speculation, but she is not on the initial block and would still need multiple things to break against her before the July 16 deadline.

2026 looks highly likely to be another exceptionally warm year, but the evidence still points more toward a top-five finish than a new all-time record. I think the market is overstating the odds that the late-year El Niño boost is enough to beat 2024.

I think a sub-1.9% 2026 average is still very much in play, but the balance of evidence leans slightly toward the core CPI finishing just above the cutoff. The recent data are soft, yet late-year cost pass-through remains strong enough to keep No as the narrow favorite.

The market still looks somewhat too optimistic. Recent traffic recovery has stalled amid renewed attacks, and PortWatch remains far below the 60-call threshold, so I put Yes below the current price.

Jay Clayton is the clear favorite given his formal nomination and impending (though delayed) hearing, but political maneuvering and Trump's conditional delay reduce certainty — I assess his chances at 75%.

I assess a ~22% chance that the full ‘bull case’ for Trump — a clear, market-defining boom in 2026 with broadly acknowledged strong economic performance tied to his presidency — will occur before 2027. The market has already rallied, but underlying macro risks and weak public confidence make the complete bull-case outcome unlikely.

Toy Story 5 is overwhelmingly likely to resolve Yes, because the latest weekend reporting already places its fourth weekend at about $18.5 million, below the $19 million cutoff. The main uncertainty is only whether final accounting nudges it upward, but that looks unlikely to change the outcome.

Very unlikely — Denmark and Greenland have explicitly closed the door, legal and political barriers are high, and a credible path to transfer sovereignty (even of part) during a Trump term is highly implausible.

I assess a substantially higher chance that NYC's population will decline than the market implies; independent probability that NYC increases by 0.01–0.99% from July 2025 to July 2027 is 30%.

I think a U.S. invasion of Iran before the end of 2026 is very unlikely. The recent escalation raises the risk of broader war, but the reporting still points to air and maritime strikes rather than any move to seize or hold Iranian territory.

Based on the immediate House floor action and underlying political incentives, I assess a substantially better-than-even chance that President Trump will be impeached (House passage of articles) before Jan 20, 2029.

I assess a low chance that Section IV will be used against President Trump during his term — roughly a 12% probability — because the constitutional, political, and practical hurdles are very high and the current activity is mostly rhetoric and procedural bills, not an operational invocation.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance (10%) the U.S. will acquire any part of Greenland by Jan 21, 2029 — Denmark's firm rejection and legal/political barriers make transfer unlikely, but Trump-level political will, creative bargaining (or Greenland independence + Compact), or rapid geopolitical shocks could produce a surprise.

Anthropic is still on a fast Opus cadence, so a new Opus by August 31 looks more likely than not, but the market’s 86.5% Yes price seems a bit too high given the absence of any official Opus teaser in the last week. Official docs still show Opus 4.8 as the current public Opus model.

I think a Yes is unlikely. The latest official action was a BTC sale, and the new capital framework looks more focused on reserve management than on fresh accumulation, so I put the chance of a purchase announcement in this window at 9%.

Given the Bears' board vote, official site selection of Hammond and active Indiana-state support, I assess a better-than-even chance the franchise will relocate to Indiana by the start of the 2028 season — my independent probability is 58%.

Spain are a genuine title contender after reaching the semifinals, but they still need to beat France and then one more elite opponent. I make Spain roughly a one-in-three shot to win the tournament, above the current market price but still clearly short of favorite status.

I make no Fed rate cuts in 2026 a strong favorite at about 89%, because the Fed’s own projections and the latest inflation data point more toward hold-or-hike than easing. The main way this loses is if inflation cools quickly and the labor market weakens materially over the next few reports.

I assess a very low independent probability (~1%) that Elon Musk will physically visit Mars before 2099; the dominant limiting factor is human lifespan rather than SpaceX technical timelines.

I assess a very high probability that there will be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term (≈93%), given constitutional, diplomatic, and political barriers; a small tail risk remains from unlikely pathways such as Greenlandic independence followed by a sale or an extraordinary coercive deal.

I assess a low probability that President Trump will voluntarily resign before his term ends — about 10% — because resignation is historically rare, Trump has strong incentives to remain, and there is no credible near-term pressure for him to step down.

I think Yes is more likely than the current market implies, because Trump’s attendance at the final and role in the trophy presentation have already been publicly reported. The main uncertainty is not whether he shows up, but whether the official champions photo frames him visibly and cleanly enough to satisfy the market rule.

The Daily Show is a live contender but not the front-runner; I put its win chance slightly above the market at 16%, with Last Week Tonight and Stephen Colbert still looking stronger overall. The new merged, area-award format keeps an upset possible, but it does not make The Daily Show the favorite.

Enola Holmes 3 has enough momentum to stay near the top, but an exact #2 finish looks only modestly likely because the week has thin competition and the movie could just as easily hold #1 or slip below #2.

I assess a low-to-moderate chance that USAID will be formally eliminated during Trump's term; most likely outcome is major restructuring or de facto weakening rather than outright abolition.

Independent assessment: I assign a 10% probability that China will overtake U.S. nominal GDP by 2030. The current gap, realistic growth and exchange-rate paths, and demographic/debt headwinds make overtaking by 2030 an unlikely but non-negligible tail outcome.

Keith Sonderling is the clear favorite given his Acting incumbency and prior Senate-confirmed role; I assess his chance at ~88% with the remaining probability split among backup contenders and low-probability upsets.

Marine Le Pen looks more viable in 2027 than the market price implies, because she is now cleared to run and recent polling has her leading the field and even shown her winning some tested runoff matchups. Still, the combination of legal uncertainty, anti-Le Pen runoff dynamics, and the long runway to April 2027 keeps this well below a clear majority chance.

I assess an extremely low independent probability that the U.S. will acquire any Canadian territory by 2029 — roughly 2% — because there is no credible legal, political, or military pathway and Canada and allies are taking clear steps to defend sovereignty.

I think a July rate cut is possible but still not the most likely outcome, so I price the Yes side at 32%. The Bank of Russia remains in an easing cycle, but the latest inflation and fuel data make a pause slightly more likely than another cut.

I assess a meaningful but not overwhelming chance that Justice Samuel Alito will resign during Trump's 2025–2029 term; my independent probability is 60%, reflecting age/strategic incentives but balanced by his recent activity and absence of confirmed plans.

I estimate a 22% chance that total federal government spending will be lower by at least $250 billion before 2028 (i.e., by the end of 2027); meaningful but unlikely given structural drivers of federal outlays and political constraints.

I assess a roughly one-in-three chance that President Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act by Jan 1, 2027 — plausible given low statutory triggers and a DOJ unlikely to block him, but constrained by high political, legal, and institutional costs.

I assess a ~10% chance the U.S. State Department will issue a Level 4 (Do Not Travel) advisory for Taiwan by Jan 1, 2027 — a low-probability but non-negligible tail event driven by the possibility of a sharp deterioration in cross‑strait security or a large-scale incident impacting U.S. citizens.

Given current public diplomacy, security constraints, and the short time window (to 2027-01-01), a direct Zelenskyy–Putin meeting before Jan 1, 2027 is unlikely; I assess it at ~12%.

I put this at 3% Yes, well below the market price. The ICJ track is still alive, but the court’s current schedule pushes pleadings beyond the 2027 deadline, and the ICC track is not currently charging genocide.

MrBeast’s next qualifying main-channel upload is still more likely to clear 20 million first-day views than fall short, but the recent slowdown in day-one performance and the possibility of a delayed upload make the under-20M outcome less impossible than the market implies.

I rate a July 7-13 Bitcoin sale announcement by Strategy as unlikely, but not impossible. The company’s recent official updates still center on reserve management and capital structure, and I do not see an official sale announcement in the relevant window so far.

France are a live underdog and probably a little better than the current market implies, but Spain’s defensive control and recent head-to-head edge keep this close to a near coin flip. My estimate is a 47% chance France win in normal or extra time.

Rockstar and Take-Two are currently acting like a launch that is locked in, with pre-orders live, preload timing set, and both Sony and Take-Two publicly tied to November 19, 2026. The market’s 9.5% Yes price looks a bit low to me, but only modestly so because Rockstar’s history still leaves some residual delay risk.

Anthropic is materially more likely to IPO before OpenAI; I assess a 75% probability that Anthropic will be the first of the two to complete an IPO before 2040.

Anthropic has already pushed Fable 5’s paid-plan cutoff back multiple times, but another extension beyond July 19 still feels less likely than not. I put Yes at 41% because the company has shown flexibility, yet it still has a clear incentive to move the model onto usage credits.

Netanyahu still has a real path back to the premiership, but the latest polling trend is leaning against him. I would price his chance lower than the market at about 34%, because the anti-Netanyahu camp is currently polling well enough to block him unless it fractures late.

I think the market is pricing a meaningful but still too-high tail risk of sudden removal. My estimate is 5% for Putin to be out as president by year-end 2026.

Mbappe is one of the two strongest contenders, but the path is still narrow. I see him as a live favorite, yet slightly less likely than the market implies because France must get past Spain and then still beat out other superstar finalists.

I slightly lean Yes at 55%, which is below the market's roughly 60% pricing. The Fed's June projections and minutes show a real internal split toward at least one hike, but softer labor data and the opportunity to wait for more inflation evidence keep this from being a high-conviction Yes.

Nvidia is still the most likely largest company by market cap on July 31, but the market is probably a bit too confident given the recent semiconductor selloff and Apple’s July 30 earnings catalyst. I would price Yes at 88%, below the current market’s 91.5%.

Alibaba remains the strongest bet to finish July with the top Chinese model on LMArena. I still give a small haircut to the market price because the lead is real but not immune to a late-month challenger or score reshuffle.

I assess a low probability that any company will credibly announce achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01 — about 10% — because the technical, verification, and reputational hurdles remain large despite rapid progress and strong incentives to claim otherwise.

I lean slightly toward Yes, but not by much. The national housing market is still near record nominal prices, yet recent Parcl and broader listing data show enough softness that a late-September print below $419,000 is plausible.