Edges for Nov 7, 2026

Slight lean to Yes: the latest November 6 estimates cluster around a launch FDV near $60 million, which is above the $50 million cutoff. The main support is that the launch looks likely to happen by year-end, and the closest fresh market read is just above even money.

Leaning Yes: the official Tomatometer is currently 91%, one point above the cutoff, but recent swings from 89% to 92% leave some downside. That supports a higher Yes chance than the market price, though not by a wide margin.

Slight lean to No: NVIDIA is still the largest company right now, and the market has only a small gap between NVIDIA and Apple as of November 6. That makes the exact second-place finish on November 30 look a bit less likely than the current price implies.

Leaning No: the centre-left now has 176 seats to Kristersson’s bloc’s 173, and he still needs a workable Riksdag majority by November 10. He remains the leading candidate, but the numbers make a new term for him less likely than the market price suggests.

Slight lean to Yes: recent Fed commentary supports a gradual hike, and market pricing still favors it. The main counterweight is that the implied probability slipped from about 80% to 74.5% before the meeting.

Leaning No: the strongest fresh signal is the reported $6 million in Thursday-plus-preview grosses on November 6, which makes finishing under $28 million harder than the market suggests.

Leaning No: Republicans are already at 44, but either Alaska or Mississippi could still put them at 45. The current 93% Yes price looks a bit high because only two very close GOP-held races remain.

Leaning No: Trump publicly dismissed replacing Hegseth on November 5 and Hegseth is still in office as of November 6, so the immediate path to him being out looks a bit less likely than the market price implies.

Leaning No: the freshest signals are still bearish, with ETH around $2,220 on November 6 and spot Ethereum ETFs showing about $99.9 million in net outflows on November 5. It needs a fairly sharp rally to get back to $3,000 before year-end.

Leaning No: the latest reports on November 6, 2026 still show Strait traffic in the single digits to low double digits, far below the 60-arrival 7-day average needed for Yes. The most recent cited IMF PortWatch value was only 2 transits on October 25, which makes a qualifying jump by December 31 look unlikely.

Leaning Yes: New York’s current lead plus a favorable November 8 trip to Philadelphia support a modest edge over the 57% market. The main downside is that the Giants’ own injuries could narrow that advantage quickly.

Leaning No: the market favors LSU at 68%, but the freshest injury news helps Alabama more. Alabama's three returning starters and LSU's added questionable tight end slightly shift the matchup toward the Tide.

Leaning No: Cagliari’s confirmed absences on November 6-7 are the clearest edge, with Fadera, Nzola, Mina, Aurelio, Idrissi, Felici and suspended Adam Obert all out. That is a bigger hit than Frosinone’s main loss of Antonio Raimondo.

Leaning No: Forest are 19th, have not won in five, and have yet to score at home this season, while City arrive three points off the top with most of their core squad available.

Leaning No: the market only resolves from the November 30 noon ET Arena snapshot, and there are no usable current leaderboard facts to suggest Alibaba is ahead right now. With no fresh evidence, the 35.5% Yes price looks a bit rich.

Leaning No: Vance is still a top Republican prospect, but as of November 7, 2026 he has not announced, Trump has not endorsed him, and Republicans just took a major midterm hit that makes the 2028 nomination path more open.

Leaning No: Netanyahu’s bloc fell to 53 of 120 seats, and Herzog is set to name a coalition nominee on November 8 with 67 lawmakers backing Eisenkot in consultations.

Leaning No: the latest reports show U.S. strikes and a blockade, but no order or movement indicating an operation to seize and hold Iranian territory. The key fact is that as of November 6–7, 2026, officials still described the actions as limited and defensive, not an invasion.

Leaning Yes: James has the outright 36-hole lead and strong tee-to-green/putting numbers, but a one-shot lead remains fragile. The market’s 41% already reflects real winning chances, so the edge is modest.

Leaning Yes: Buffalo’s strong record and AFC performance justify a small bump above 25%. The injuries are real, but they are immediate rather than season-ending.

Leaning No: the market is at 10.5%, but SOL is still around $89 on November 6, 2026 and would need a roughly 56% rally to reach $140 before year-end. The latest price action, ETF withdrawals, and China setback all point the wrong way.

Leaning No: the freshest evidence shows Mullin still serving as DHS secretary on November 4–6, 2026, with no resignation or removal announcement. The market is already on No, and the latest reports point to continued service rather than an exit.

Leaning Yes: the strongest recent signal is the October 28 split vote, where two officials already wanted a hike, and the next scheduled December 8–9 meeting is still a live chance to deliver one.

Leaning Yes: Murphy is still ahead by 233 votes with all 190 precincts reported, and the only remaining path to a Democratic flip is that late-counted ballots or a recount overturns that tiny margin.

Leaning Yes: the current 10-point market spread is well above the 3.5-point threshold, and New York’s offense is weakened by Garrett Wilson’s absence. That supports a modest move above the 71% market price.

Leaning Yes: Blaney’s practice profile, especially long-run speed, is a real win signal. The 20% market price looks a bit low, though qualifying still matters a lot.

Leaning No: the strongest fresh signal is the November 7 stance from Trump and the Pentagon that Hegseth is staying, and there is still no announced resignation or removal.

Leaning Yes: Northwestern’s quarterback situation worsened on November 6, while Iowa’s defense remains elite. That supports Iowa above the 56% market price, but Northwestern’s strong home form limits the move.

Leaning No: the freshest polling has Labour at 30.7% and National at 26.4%, which points to Labour having the better shot at the most seats. National still has a path through electorate wins and coalition math, but the latest read is against it.

Leaning No: the latest Bonbast-linked quotes on November 6 are still around 2.683–2.685 million rials per USD, well above the 2.0 million cutoff.

Leaning No: the Bank of Israel held at 3.25% on October 21, 2026, and recent official messaging points to gradual easing rather than a sudden 50+ bp cut. Inflation is already 1.6%, but strong growth and shekel weakness make a large January move unlikely.

Leaning No: the January 2027 bar is high, because the Bank of Korea was still at 3.00% on November 5 and recent signals pointed to more tightening or a long hold, not a 50+ bp cut.

Leaning Yes: Georgia’s playoff position and statistical profile are stronger than its 23% title price suggests. The main drag is that even elite contenders still face a very low conversion rate from playoff team to champion.

Leaning Yes: Duke’s depth, returning production, and No. 2 ranking support a modest bump above 16%. The title path is still long and crowded, so the edge stays small.

Leaning No: the latest confirmed reports keep Hegseth in office, and Trump’s public support offsets removal pressure. The 17% Yes price looks a little high given no resignation, firing, or replacement yet.

Leaning Yes: Philadelphia’s offense is weakened by multiple absences and a QB change, while New York’s biggest concern is Skattebo’s doubtful status. The market already favors the Giants, but the latest injury report nudges Yes a bit higher.

Leaning No: Raridon is active, but his touchdown usage has been sparse and Green Bay tight-end defense is strong. The market’s 26% yes price looks a bit high unless Henry is ruled out and Raridon absorbs more red-zone work.

Leaning Yes: the market already prices Cincinnati as the better team, and recent results support that. The edge is modest because final inactives could still trim it.

Leaning Yes: Tottenham has a small edge from Leeds’ late injury uncertainty and Bentancur’s return, but the market already prices a tight match.

Leaning No: the market is near a field-goal margin, but New England’s skill-position injuries and questionable line pieces make a 4+ point win less likely than the price suggests. Green Bay’s passing weapons being available also supports a close game.

Leaning No: Alabama got key players back, while LSU still has multiple questionable or doubtful defenders. The published preview and injury mix point more toward a close Alabama result than an LSU cover.

Leaning No: BTC is hovering barely above the threshold, but recent intraday drops and macro pressure make a sub-$75,750 close plausible.

Leaning Yes: Arsenal remain heavy favorites at home, and the news adds little reason to doubt them. The market is already high, but lineup context and Hull’s weak form support a modest move upward.

No edge: the market’s 56-seat outcome already reflects that Democrats are leading in both unresolved races. The main question is whether Alaska and Mississippi both hold through certification by February 1.

Slight lean to Yes: McIlroy’s 63 moved him to within one shot of the lead, keeping him close with two rounds left. The market’s 24% looks a touch low given his position, but he still trails three co-leaders.

Slight lean to No: New York is a serious bidder, but Taylor is still with Indianapolis and no reported offer has met the Colts' price. The market at 43% Yes looks a bit high unless a deal materializes before November 10.

Slight lean to Yes: Miami’s offense loses a major weapon, while Notre Dame remains the home favorite. The market already moved hard, so the edge is modest.

Slight lean to No: Madrid remain the likelier winner, but Vinícius’s suspension and multiple absences trim their edge slightly below the current price.