Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Leaning No: the latest reports on November 6, 2026 still show Strait traffic in the single digits to low double digits, far below the 60-arrival 7-day average needed for Yes. The most recent cited IMF PortWatch value was only 2 transits on October 25, which makes a qualifying jump by December 31 look unlikely.
Analysis
November 6, 2026 reports still describe Strait of Hormuz traffic as sharply depressed, with recent daily counts around 9 ships and broader activity roughly 40 per day, well below the level needed for a 60-moving-average reading. The latest cited IMF PortWatch figure available in reporting was only 2 transits for October 25, far from the threshold.
There is still time for a recovery, and PortWatch lags can hide newer movement, but the current pattern is ongoing attacks, tanker caution, and ships holding position rather than a return to normal traffic. To reach Yes, the official series would need a sustained and very large improvement, not just a brief bounce.
Arguments
For
- Traffic is still being described as substantially reduced, which keeps the official 7-day average well below 60 for now.
- Continuing attacks and tanker standstills make a fast normalization by December 31 less plausible.
- The latest available official PortWatch figure cited in reporting is dramatically below the qualifying level.
Against
- There is enough time left in the year for a sudden improvement if security conditions change quickly.
- Because the market resolves on published PortWatch data, a delayed catch-up in the official series could reveal a higher average than current headlines suggest.
Key drivers
- Recent observed traffic remains far below the threshold, with November 5 counts around 9 commercial ships and no sign of a sustained surge.
- The rule requires a published 7-day moving average of at least 60, and the latest cited official PortWatch reading in reporting was only 2 transits on October 25.
Risk factors
- PortWatch publication lag means the official data could later catch up to a rebound that is not yet visible in the latest cited series.
- A rapid security or diplomatic breakthrough could restore tanker and commercial flows faster than current traffic reports imply.
Scenarios
Best case
If attacks stop and tanker traffic normalizes enough for IMF PortWatch to publish a 7-day average at or above 60 before December 31, 2026, Yes rises to about 25%.
Most likely
Most likely the Strait remains well below normal through year-end, with Yes around 5%.
Worst case
If traffic stays around current levels through late December 2026, Yes falls to about 1%.
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