Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Leaning Yes: the strongest recent signal is the October 28 split vote, where two officials already wanted a hike, and the next scheduled December 8–9 meeting is still a live chance to deliver one.
Analysis
The freshest hard signal is the October 28, 2026 FOMC decision to hold rates 10–2, with two dissents for a 25-basis-point hike. That makes the December 8–9 meeting the key remaining decision point, and the latest reported pricing still puts a hike as the more likely outcome.
Inflation and growth data both lean hawkish: September inflation was described as elevated, and third-quarter GDP growth was reported at 3.4% annualized. Weak payrolls and higher unemployment are the main counterweight, but not enough to erase the case for one more hike, so Yes still looks more likely than No.
Arguments
For
- October 28 produced a hawkish hold, not a dovish one, which keeps a December hike on the table.
- Reported year-end 2026 median policy rate of 4.1% fits one more 25-basis-point increase from the current range.
- Inflation readings cited for September were still above comfort levels, supporting a tighter stance.
Against
- Labor market softness from September lowers the urgency to hike again immediately.
- The Fed may prefer to wait for more evidence before moving after already raising rates on September 16.
Key drivers
- Two officials dissented for a hike at the October 28 meeting, showing internal support for higher rates was already present.
- The December 8–9 FOMC meeting is the last scheduled chance for a qualifying hike before the market ends.
Risk factors
- September payroll growth of 29,000 and unemployment at 4.2% give the Fed a reason to pause.
- Chair Kevin Warsh did not commit to a December move, so the committee could still choose to hold again.
Scenarios
Best case
If the December 8–9 FOMC statement delivers a 25-basis-point hike, Yes rises to about 90%.
Most likely
Most likely the Fed decides on December 9, with a modest hike remaining the likeliest outcome and Yes ending around 72%.
Worst case
If the December 8–9 meeting ends with another hold and no emergency hike occurs before then, Yes falls to about 10%.
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