Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship Winner
Slight lean to Yes: McIlroy’s 63 moved him to within one shot of the lead, keeping him close with two rounds left. The market’s 24% looks a touch low given his position, but he still trails three co-leaders.
Analysis
November 6, 2026: McIlroy shot 63 and sits one shot behind the three co-leaders entering the weekend. He remains very much alive, and there is no report of withdrawal or injury.
The main drag on his chances is that Rahm, Hatton, and Laporta all start ahead of him, so he must still outplay several strong contenders over 36 holes. The current price is reasonable, but his position justifies a small upward adjustment.
Arguments
For
- A 63 shows he can make a quick run up the board.
- He is close enough that one good round changes everything.
Against
- He still trails three co-leaders after two rounds.
- History here has not yet turned into a win.
Key drivers
- McIlroy is only one shot off the lead.
- Three strong players are ahead of him.
Risk factors
- A poor third round could end his title chance.
- The leaders have a head start and can control pace.
Scenarios
Best case
If he takes the lead after round three, Yes rises to about 42%.
Most likely
Most likely he stays in contention without winning, with Yes around 26%.
Worst case
If he falls three shots back this weekend, Yes falls to about 12%.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 27% | 25% |
| Jon Rahm | 19% | 18% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 14% | 13% |
| Francesco Laporta | 8% | 8% |
| Matthew Jordan | 7% | 7% |
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