Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Leaning No: Netanyahu’s bloc fell to 53 of 120 seats, and Herzog is set to name a coalition nominee on November 8 with 67 lawmakers backing Eisenkot in consultations.
Analysis
As of November 7, 2026, Netanyahu still has not been sworn in after the election, and his bloc is short of a majority with only 53 seats. Herzog is expected to pick a candidate on November 8, and the latest consultations gave Eisenkot a clearer first path with 67 endorsements versus 46 for Netanyahu.
Netanyahu can still come back if he stitches together support from outside his bloc, but that looks harder now that coalition talks are moving toward alternatives and the ultra-Orthodox parties are not locked in. The market should still allow for some comeback risk, but the freshest evidence points against him being the next sworn-in prime minister.
Arguments
For
- Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister and the incumbent, which can help in last-minute coalition bargaining.
- His religious-nationalist bloc is cohesive enough that a few additional defections or outside backing could still put him over 61.
- The opposition is not fully unified, so a failed alternative coalition could reopen a Netanyahu path.
Against
- His bloc did not win a majority, making a Netanyahu-led government dependent on hard-to-secure external support.
- The latest consultation count favored Eisenkot over Netanyahu, signaling weaker post-election momentum for Netanyahu.
- Reports that Eisenkot’s camp is making progress with ultra-Orthodox parties reduce Netanyahu’s advantage in coalition math.
Key drivers
- Netanyahu’s bloc won only 53 seats, leaving him eight short of a Knesset majority and dependent on wavering partners.
- Herzog’s consultations showed 67 lawmakers backing Eisenkot and only 46 backing Netanyahu, which is a real procedural advantage ahead of the November 8 nomination.
Risk factors
- Likud is still the largest single party with 27 seats, so Netanyahu could still assemble a coalition if negotiations break his way.
- If coalition talks deadlock and a new election is called in early 2027, the path to a sworn-in successor could stay uncertain for months.
Scenarios
Best case
If Herzog nominates Netanyahu on November 8 and he quickly locks down a coalition before the 28-day window ends, Yes rises to about 35%.
Most likely
Most likely Herzog backs a non-Netanyahu coalition attempt and Netanyahu fails to secure enough partners, with Yes around 15%.
Worst case
If Herzog nominates Eisenkot on November 8 and a coalition is formed without Netanyahu by late 2026, Yes falls to about 5%.
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