Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Leaning No: the freshest evidence shows Mullin still serving as DHS secretary on November 4–6, 2026, with no resignation or removal announcement. The market is already on No, and the latest reports point to continued service rather than an exit.
Analysis
The newest evidence is from November 4–6, 2026: Mullin is still acting as Homeland Security secretary, appearing publicly and issuing policy statements. That makes an immediate departure announcement look unlikely right now.
Congressional pressure is rising after the midterm elections, but pressure is not the same as removal. Unless Trump explicitly moves against him or Mullin resigns before December 31, the most likely outcome is that he stays in place through the deadline.
Arguments
For
- Recent official and public activity indicates he is still in office right now.
- The available reporting shows policy continuity, not signs of an exit plan.
- There is no announced resignation, removal, or replacement in the current news flow.
Against
- The administration could still force a change if the post-election environment turns against him.
- A high-visibility DHS role is vulnerable to political fallout, especially after the midterms.
Key drivers
- He is still publicly performing the DHS secretary role as of November 4–6, 2026.
- No credible report in the latest material says Trump has asked him to leave or that Mullin plans to resign.
Risk factors
- A post-election clash with Congress could quickly turn into a personnel decision if DHS becomes a political liability.
- A sudden resignation or White House shake-up before December 31 would immediately trigger a Yes outcome.
Scenarios
Best case
If Trump announces Mullin’s resignation or replacement before December 31, 2026, Yes rises to about 100%.
Most likely
Most likely he keeps serving through year-end, with Yes around 19%.
Worst case
If Mullin remains DHS secretary through December 31, 2026, Yes falls to about 0%.
More from this day
- cryptoPolymarket47d
Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch?
AI52%MKT87%Edge-35HypedSlight lean to Yes: the latest November 6 estimates cluster around a launch FDV near $60 million, which is above the $50 million cutoff. The main support is that the launch looks likely to happen by year-end, and the closest fresh market read is just above even money.
- EntertainmentKalshiEnded
Godzilla Minus Zero · Rotten Tomatoes score
AI33%MKT7%Edge+26UndervaluedLeaning Yes: the official Tomatometer is currently 91%, one point above the cutoff, but recent swings from 89% to 92% leave some downside. That supports a higher Yes chance than the market price, though not by a wide margin.
- economyPolymarket16d
2nd Largest Company end of November 2026?
AI54%MKT68%Edge-14OvervaluedSlight lean to No: NVIDIA is still the largest company right now, and the market has only a small gap between NVIDIA and Apple as of November 6. That makes the exact second-place finish on November 30 look a bit less likely than the current price implies.