Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?

A formal U.S. acquisition of any part of Greenland would require more than diplomatic interest or military access; it would need a durable transfer of sovereignty or territory from Denmark and likely assent from Greenlandic authorities as well. That is an exceptionally high hurdle. Greenland is self-governing, Denmark is not inclined to cede territory, and Greenland’s own political culture strongly favors self-determination rather than becoming part of the United States. The most realistic U.S. objective is continued basing, security cooperation, or investment, not acquisition. Those alternatives can expand U.S. influence without crossing the line into ownership, which makes the actual event much harder to realize than headlines about strategic interest might suggest.

The only plausible pathways would be a rare political rupture, a negotiated transfer tied to an extraordinary geopolitical bargain, or an internal Greenlandic independence process that somehow leads to choosing U.S. association. Even then, “any part” still implies an actual transfer of territory, and international precedent for this kind of deal in the modern era is sparse. There is also a strong likelihood that any serious attempt would face resistance from Denmark, Greenland, the broader EU context, and likely domestic U.S. skepticism once the legal and diplomatic complications became clear. In other words, the strategic rationale exists, but the mechanism does not.

The market price of 18% looks far too high relative to the legal, diplomatic, and political constraints. I think the market may be pricing in headline risk, repeated rhetoric, or the possibility of expanded military arrangements and mistakenly treating those as partial acquisition. Unless the definition is interpreted very loosely, the most likely outcome is no acquisition at all, with U.S.-Greenland relations remaining centered on security, minerals, and influence rather than sovereignty transfer.