US real GDP growth in 2033?
My independent view is that 2033 U.S. GDP growth is most likely to land in the low-to-mid 2% area, with the 1.1% to 1.5% bucket still the single biggest outcome but not by enough to justify a heavy favorite. I think the market is slightly too pessimistic about medium-run growth and underweights the chance that trend growth stays near 2% or modestly above it.
Analysis
The best anchor for 2033 is not a direct forecast for that exact year, but the Fed’s longer-run tendency around 2.0% to 2.2% and its recent SEP path showing growth staying a little above 2% through the late 2020s. That argues against a deep structural slowdown as the base case and makes a 1.1% to 1.5% reading plausible but not overwhelming. If the economy continues to expand along a trend-growth path, the center of gravity for 2033 should sit closer to the 1.6% to 2.5% band than the market appears to imply, with the lower bucket more of a cautious downside case than the modal outcome.
The main reason to avoid going too bullish is that the New York Fed DSGE path is meaningfully softer, especially in the earlier years, and long-run growth forecasts are notoriously fragile. Demographics, productivity volatility, and policy shocks can easily pull a 2033 outcome below the Fed’s longer-run central tendency. That keeps the lower range as the single most likely bucket, but it does not make sub-1.5% growth a near certainty.
Relative to the current market, I think the pricing is a bit too concentrated in the low-growth bucket and too dismissive of a return to around 2% growth. The market’s 49% on 1.1% to 1.5% looks reasonable but slightly rich, while the combined probability on 1.6% to 2.5% looks understated given official trend-growth assumptions. The extreme outcomes, especially 6.1% or above, still look very unlikely unless there is a major productivity breakthrough or an accounting anomaly.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: The Fed’s latest long-run outlook supports an economy that still grows around trend rather than stagnating.
- Arguments for Yes: If productivity and labor force growth remain resilient, 2033 growth can plausibly drift into the 1.6% to 2.5% range.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: The New York Fed’s model is much weaker than the Fed SEP and suggests trend growth could undershoot expectations.
- Arguments against Yes: Long-horizon GDP forecasts are highly uncertain, and structural headwinds can persist for years.
Key drivers
- The Fed’s longer-run growth estimate near 2% to 2.2% is the strongest available anchor for 2033.
- The alternative model evidence is weaker, but it mainly argues for uncertainty rather than a decisive collapse in trend growth.
Risk factors
- A prolonged productivity slowdown or adverse demographic drag could keep growth trapped near the lower bucket.
- A major recession or policy shock near 2033 would make the 0.0% or below outcome materially more likely.
Scenarios
Best case
Productivity improves, inflation stays controlled, and the economy enters 2033 still expanding at roughly 2% to 2.5%, making the higher growth buckets the winning outcomes.
Most likely
The economy continues growing at a modest trend pace, with the highest probability concentrated in 1.1% to 1.5% but substantial spillover into 1.6% to 2.0% and some chance of 2.1% to 2.5%.
Worst case
A recession, financial stress, or a prolonged productivity slump pushes 2033 growth toward 1.0% or below, with the zero-or-negative bucket becoming much more competitive.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1% to 1.5% | 38% | 49% |
| 1.6% to 2.0% | 30% | 12% |
| 0.0% or Below | 9% | 10% |
| 2.1% to 2.5% | 20% | 10% |
| 6.1% or Above | 3% | 8% |
More from this day
- politicsPolymarketEnded
Trump x Greenland deal signed by...?
AI12%MKT97%Edge-85HypedThe agreement appears to have been announced, but the formal signature is still described as coming next week rather than before the September 23 cutoff. That makes a Yes outcome possible only if the governments accelerate the signing unexpectedly, so I think the market is materially overpricing Yes.
- FinancialsKalshi13y
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
AI23%MKT90%Edge-67HypedI think Anthropic is more likely to IPO before OpenAI, so the Yes side looks overpriced if Yes means OpenAI goes first. The clearest public signals point to Anthropic being closer to market, while OpenAI is explicitly signaling a later timetable.
- PoliticsKalshi2y
Who will Trump pardon?
AI3%MKT50%Edge-47HypedI think the chance Barron Trump receives a presidential pardon before Jan. 21, 2029 is very low, because there is no visible underlying federal offense or legal exposure that would make a pardon relevant. Absent an extraordinary future scandal, this looks far more like a speculative family-name market than a grounded clemency case.