Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

The strongest argument for impeachment is simply time and political volatility: there are still more than two years left in the term, Trump has a long record of generating sharp congressional backlash, and a change in House control after the 2026 elections could create the only realistic path to articles of impeachment. If Democrats win the House and decide that impeachment is politically useful, the House could move relatively quickly, especially if a major scandal, constitutional confrontation, or legal development gives leadership cover. Trump’s history of being impeached twice also lowers the psychological barrier for members who already view impeachment as a familiar tool rather than an extraordinary one.

The strongest argument against impeachment is that the institutional conditions are currently poor. The House just tabled Rep. Al Green’s resolution by a wide margin, which is a clear signal that the chamber is not willing to advance impeachment now. More importantly, reporting says Democratic leadership is not making impeachment a top priority, and that matters because impeachment requires more than outrage; it requires sustained caucus discipline, a clear political strategy, and a Speaker willing to spend floor time and capital on it. Without a major new trigger, the default path is continued resistance rather than advancement.

On balance, the market looks overpriced. A 66% price implies impeachment is more likely than not, but the most plausible route depends on Democrats winning the House and then choosing to spend scarce political capital on a divisive process that they are not currently embracing. That sequence is certainly possible, but it is far from the base case. I would price this closer to the low-40s because the current Congress has already shown little appetite, and the remaining path requires multiple contingent political steps to break in favor of impeachment.