Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

The immediate political environment is hostile to any impeachment effort. The House just voted to table the latest impeachment resolution, which is a clear signal that there is not enough present-day support to move an impeachment process forward, and removal would require an even more demanding Senate conviction threshold that is far from realistic under current conditions. The fact that multiple recent attempts have failed suggests this is not merely a timing issue but a structural one: there is insufficient unified support even inside the opposition party, and Republicans remain broadly aligned against it.

The main path to a Yes outcome runs through a change in House control after the midterms, followed by some major event that produces a materially different political environment. Even then, impeachment is easier than removal, and the Senate barrier is enormous unless Trump’s standing collapses across his own party or a highly damaging development reshapes incentives for dozens of senators. Historically, removal has never happened in U.S. history, and impeachment has almost always reflected overwhelming partisan breakdowns that are currently absent.

The market’s 18% yes price appears too high relative to the present evidence. That price implies a fairly meaningful chance of not just an impeachment vote but also a Senate conviction, yet the current House has already rejected the effort and the Senate math remains deeply unfavorable. The market may be pricing in tail risk from future legal or political shocks, but absent a major new scandal or a sweeping electoral realignment, the more probable outcome is that Trump is not impeached and removed before the end of the term.