Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

On the facts available, Anthropic looks better positioned to be first to the public markets. Public reporting says it has already moved ahead on confidential filing timing and may be able to launch within a near-term 2026 window, while OpenAI has explicitly said it will not go public in 2026 and has suggested 2027 instead. That gap matters because the first IPO in a race is usually determined by which company is willing and able to accept the operational and governance burden sooner, not simply which one has more scale or attention.

OpenAI does have the resources and strategic optionality to go public eventually, but its recent behavior is consistent with delay rather than urgency. It is still exploring large private financing, which is more consistent with preserving flexibility and pushing the listing decision back. Anthropic, by contrast, appears to have the earlier execution timeline in the press and is closer to an actual offering window, which gives it a practical edge even if either deal could slip.

Compared with the current market price, the Yes side looks far too expensive if Yes is the proposition that OpenAI will IPO before Anthropic. A 92% implied probability would require OpenAI to either reverse its stated timeline or Anthropic to miss a fairly advanced near-term process, and that combination seems unlikely based on the reporting. The main reason the market may be mispricing this is that OpenAI’s brand and scale can cause traders to anchor on inevitability, while the concrete filing/timing signals currently favor Anthropic.