Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Anthropic looks more likely to IPO first, with OpenAI openly signaling delay and ruling out 2026. The market’s heavy Yes pricing appears somewhat overstated given the current evidence.
Analysis
The strongest evidence currently favors Anthropic reaching the public markets before OpenAI. OpenAI has filed confidentially, but Sam Altman’s direct comment that it is “not 2026” materially weakens the case for an imminent listing, and the company has also framed the timing as undecided and potentially delayed for strategic reasons. Anthropic, by contrast, is being described in reporting as having filed earlier and potentially moving toward a late-2026 debut, which gives it a clearer near-term path even if that path is still only reported rather than formally confirmed.
The main argument for Yes is that filing order alone does not guarantee listing order, and OpenAI has far greater visibility, scale, and investor demand, which could allow it to accelerate if management changes course. However, that scenario requires a meaningful reversal from the current public posture, while Anthropic only needs to continue along the timeline that recent reporting suggests. In a market question framed over a long horizon through 2040, near-term sequencing matters most, and the near-term evidence is tilted toward Anthropic.
The current market price implies an even stronger belief that Yes is already the overwhelmingly likely outcome, but that looks rich relative to the actual certainty in the available facts. The market may be extrapolating from OpenAI’s dominant profile and assuming its filing naturally means first-mover status, while discounting both Altman’s explicit delay signal and the possibility that Anthropic moves faster through the regulatory and marketing process. On balance, Yes is favored, but not to the degree implied by a price above 90%.
Arguments
For
- Anthropic has the clearer reported near-term path to a public listing.
- OpenAI’s own comments make an immediate IPO less likely than many traders may assume.
Against
- A faster-than-expected OpenAI move would override the current sequencing narrative.
- Anthropic’s timetable is based on reporting, not a definitive company commitment.
Key drivers
- Anthropic appears to have filed earlier and may have a nearer-term IPO window.
- OpenAI’s leadership has publicly pushed back on a 2026 debut and suggested delay.
Risk factors
- OpenAI could accelerate if market conditions and internal priorities shift quickly.
- Anthropic’s reported IPO timeline is not yet firm and could slip materially.
Scenarios
Best case
Anthropic proceeds with a late-2026 IPO while OpenAI delays into 2027 or later, making the Yes outcome straightforward.
Most likely
Anthropic edges out OpenAI on timing, but the gap may be narrow because both companies still retain discretion over when to finalize a listing.
Worst case
OpenAI reverses course, prioritizes public listing, and beats Anthropic to market despite its current caution.
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